062
FXUS61 KOKX 120113
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
913 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through the middle of next
week. The high may briefly weaken on Friday with a surface
trough moving through.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Temperatures were lowered a few degrees using MOS guidance to
account for cooler than forecasted temperatures tonight.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
The center of high pressure is in the process of shifting offshore,
where it will remain anchored for several days. Aloft, heights
slightly rise tonight.
With the high shifting offshore, the synoptic flow becomes
south/southeasterly. With tonight being the first night of onshore
flow, do not expect widespread fog development. However, thinking
patchy fog is at least possible in most locations outside of NYC.
The best chances will be in river valleys.
Clear skies and light winds will lead to good radiational cooling
conditions. With the gradual moistening of the area, lows are not
expected to drop into the 40s like some nights we have had over
the past week or so. Tonight, lows likely bottom out in the
lower to mid 50s in the usual cool spots. Elsewhere, expect lows
in the upper 50s to low 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains centered offshore through the end of the short
term period. It will briefly weaken on Friday as a weak surface
trough may move through the area later on Friday. The flow aloft is
mostly zonal Thursday and Thursday night, with a weak shortwave
passing through on Friday into Friday night.
This pattern leads to quiet weather. A slight warming trend will
continue through Friday, with highs Friday in the upper 70s to lower
80s and lows Friday night in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The multiple
nights of onshore flow will likely lead to more widespread fog
development on Thursday night and Friday night.
With the shortwave and associated surface trough moving through on
Friday, a light shower can`t be completely ruled out for eastern CT.
Thinking anything that does fall will not be measurable, so have
lowered PoPs below slight chance for now.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warm and dry conditions continue into early next week with high
pressure remaining over the Northeast. The high is expected to
weaken Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure potentially
develops off the Southeast coast and tracks north. Will go ahead and
introduce some chance POPs Tuesday night into Wednesday for this
threat.
Saturday appears to be the warmest day in the long term with highs
mostly in the lower/mid 80s. The remainder of the long term will see
highs in the middle and upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure moves offshore to the east of New England in the
Atlantic through the TAF period.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The
exception is outside of NYC terminals with the potential for fog
late tonight into early Thursday morning which would reduce
visibilities to MVFR to IFR. Have TEMPO groups for KSWF, KHPN, KISP,
KBDR and KGON to indicate this in a time window of 08-12Z
Thursday. Guidance still varies on the extent of the fog.
Otherwise, wind speeds will be 10 kts or less through the TAF
period. Wind direction generally SE to S this evening, and
variable late tonight into early Thursday morning, before
returning to more S to SE direction by late Thursday morning
into Thursday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Fog possible late tonight into early Thursday with MVFR to IFR
visibilities. Probabilities too low to include in TAFs.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon-Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower
fog/clouds for the non-city terminals each late night/early
morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet on the waters with high pressure in control. An easterly swell
will get now higher than 2 ft at 8-9s through the end of the
week.
Conditions remain below SCA levels through the weekend, however seas
are forecast to build to SCA levels on Monday as swells increase
from a low pressure system well south of the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk at the NYC beaches Thursday and
Friday, with a low risk of rips at the Nassau and Suffolk beaches.
There is a chance that some moderate rips will be possible on Friday
across the eastern beaches.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...BR/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BC/JT
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...