536
FXUS61 KOKX 120541
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
141 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain in control through the middle of next
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Temperatures were lowered a few degrees using MOS guidance to
account for cooler than forecasted temperatures tonight.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

The center of high pressure is in the process of shifting offshore,
where it will remain anchored for several days. Aloft, heights
slightly rise tonight.

With the high shifting offshore, the synoptic flow has become
S-SE. With tonight being the first night of onshore flow, do
not expect widespread fog development. However, thinking patchy
fog is at least possible in most locations outside of NYC. The
best chances will be in river valleys.

Some low clouds have begun to creep northward from the Jersey
shore as well into NYC. Otherwise, clear skies and light winds
will lead to good radiational cooling conditions. With the
gradual moistening of the area, temps should not be quite as
cool as recent nights, but should still bottom out in the upper
40s in the coldest spots, in the 50s most elsewhere, and lower
60s invof NYC.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will remain centered offshore. The flow aloft is
mostly zonal Thursday and Thursday night, with a weak mid level
shortwave trough passing through Friday afternoon/evening.

This pattern leads to quiet weather. A slight warming trend
will continue through Friday, with highs Friday in the upper 70s
to lower 80s and lows Friday night in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
The multiple nights of onshore flow will likely lead to more
widespread fog and/or low stratus development Thu night and Fri
night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Warm and dry conditions continue into early next week with high
pressure remaining over the Northeast. The high is expected to
weaken Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure potentially
develops off the Southeast coast and tracks north. Will go ahead
and introduce some chance PoP Tuesday night into Wednesday for
this threat.

Saturday appears to be the warmest day in the long term with
highs mostly in the lower/mid 80s. The remainder of the long
term will see highs from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure remains centered to our east.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The
exception is outside of NYC terminals with the potential for fog
overnight/early this morning which would reduce visibilities to
MVFR to IFR.

Light and variable winds becoming SE-S under 10kt later this
morning into early afternoon, returning to light and variable
this evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys possible before daybreak, but an
overall low chance.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon-Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower
fog/clouds for the non-city terminals each late night/early
morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Quiet on the waters with high pressure in control. A longer
period E swell will get no higher than 2 ft at 8-9s through the
end of the week.

Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the weekend,
however seas are forecast to build to 5 ft on Mon as swells
increase from a low pressure system well to the south.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate rip current risk at the NYC beaches Thursday
and Friday, with a low risk of rips at the Nassau and Suffolk
beaches. There is a chance that some moderate rips will be
possible on Friday across the eastern beaches.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...BG/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/JT
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...