491
FXUS61 KOKX 121045
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
645 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low stratus continues to expand into NE NJ, NYC, and Rockland,
with some fog as well west of the Garden State Pkwy. These
should persist until about 11Z-12Z, then quickly burn off with
daytime heating by 15Z. River valley fog elsewhere and patchy
fog across ern Long Island should burn off by that time as
well.

Mostly sunny skies this afternoon should yield high temps a
little warmer than those of yesterday, with highs in the upper
70s along the coast and in the higher interior elevations, with
lower 80s elsewhere.

Onshore flow today will persist into tonight, pushing dewpoints
along the coast into the upper 50s and lower 60s. This plus
radiational cooling should lead to more widespread fog and/or
low stratus late tonight. Low temps should range from the mid
50s inland and across a good deal of eastern Long Island, to
60-65 in the NYC metro area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure will remain centered just offshore.
After passage of a weak mid level shortwave trough Fri
afternoon/evening, heights aloft will also rise, with a 588+ dm
upper high shifting from the upper Great Lakes into the
Northeast. As a result, a slight warming trend will continue
through the period, with high temps on Fri 80-85 in most places,
and upper 70s confined to the forks of Long Island and coastal
SE CT. Sat should be a touch warmer, with more widespread mid
80s away from the coast.

Fri night and Sat night should see a repeat of patchy fog
and/or low stratus, with low temps both nights ranging from
the mid/upper 50s in the cooler spots, to the lower/mid 60s
in the NYC metro area and across western Long Island/coastal SW
CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warm and dry conditions continue into early next week with high
pressure remaining over the Northeast. The high is expected to
weaken Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure potentially
develops off the Southeast coast and tracks northwest.
It appears that high pressure over the forecast area will still
be strong enough to keep us dry through at least Tuesday as the
potential storm to the south would weaken as it shifts through
the Southeast. A chance of rain/showers then follows for Tuesday
night and Wednesday as the associated moisture drifts north.
High temperatures through the long term will be close to normal
in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains centered to our east.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There
is however the potential for low stratus/fog early this
morning and a better chance of this once again late tonight into
Friday morning. MVFR/IFR conditions would be possible in these
cases.

Light and variable winds becoming SE-S under 10 kt later this
morning into early afternoon, returning to light and variable
this evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Tempo MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys possible until around 13Z and again
late tonight into the Friday morning push.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Tonight-Monday: Mainly VFR, but a chance of MVFR or lower
fog/clouds for each late night/early morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet on the waters through the weekend with high pressure in
control. Seas are forecast to build to 5 ft on Mon as swells
increase from a low pressure system well to the south.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk at the NYC and Nassau
beaches today, with incoming E swell of 2 ft/9 sec and a S sea
breeze increasing close to around 10 kt. The moderate risk
continues there for Fri and includes SE Suffolk per RCMOS
guidance, with a similar wind regime and slightly higher
SE swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG