781
FXUS61 KOKX 121722
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
122 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The morning fog and stratus have burned off and abundant
sunshine prevails this afternoon with high pressure nearby.
This is allowing temperatures to bump up a little warmer than
those yesterday, climbing into the upper 70s to near 80.
Onshore flow today will persist into tonight, pushing dewpoints
along the coast into the upper 50s and lower 60s. This plus
radiational cooling should lead to more widespread fog and/or
low stratus late tonight. Low temps should range from the mid
50s inland and across a good deal of eastern Long Island, to
60-65 in the NYC metro area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure will remain centered just offshore.
After passage of a weak mid level shortwave trough Fri
afternoon/evening, heights aloft will also rise, with a 588+ dm
upper high shifting from the upper Great Lakes into the
Northeast. As a result, a slight warming trend will continue
through the period, with high temps on Fri 80-85 in most places,
and upper 70s confined to the forks of Long Island and coastal
SE CT. Sat should be a touch warmer, with more widespread mid
80s away from the coast.
Fri night and Sat night should see a repeat of patchy fog
and/or low stratus, with low temps both nights ranging from
the mid/upper 50s in the cooler spots, to the lower/mid 60s
in the NYC metro area and across western Long Island/coastal SW
CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warm and dry conditions continue into early next week with high
pressure remaining over the Northeast. The high is expected to
weaken Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure potentially
develops off the Southeast coast and tracks northwest.
It appears that high pressure over the forecast area will still
be strong enough to keep us dry through at least Tuesday as the
potential storm to the south would weaken as it shifts through
the Southeast. A chance of rain/showers then follows for Tuesday
night and Wednesday as the associated moisture drifts north.
High temperatures through the long term will be close to normal
in the mid 70s to around 80.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered to our east through Friday.
VFR for much of the period. There is a chance for IFR cigs/vsbys
from about 08Z to 13Z Friday. The combination of increasing
low-level moisture is forecast to allow for the development of
low clouds and fog late tonight. Best chance looks to be at the
coastal terminals and KHPN. Confidence is increasing, but will
continue to address the potential in a TEMPO group.
SE-S winds less than 10 kt this afternoon will once again
become light and variable tonight. Onshore flow will redevelop
on Friday from the S-SE. KLGA may stay from the NE into early
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KLGA could hold on to NE winds 1-2 hours longer than currently
forecast.
MVFR/IFR potentially prevails for at least a few hours late
tonight into the Friday morning push - low to moderate
confidence.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Afternoon-Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but a chance of MVFR or
lower fog/clouds for each late night/early morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet on the waters through the weekend with high pressure in
control. Seas are forecast to build to 5 ft on Mon as swells
increase from a low pressure system well to the south.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk at the NYC and Nassau
beaches today, with incoming E swell of 2 ft/9 sec and a S sea
breeze increasing close to around 10 kt. The moderate risk
continues there for Fri and includes SE Suffolk per RCMOS
guidance, with a similar wind regime and slightly higher
SE swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG/DR
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...