133
FXUS61 KOKX 131950
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through early next week. An area
of low pressure and associated frontal system may impact the
area mid to late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A mid level shortwave trough passes off the New England coast
this evening with a really weak surface reflection moving
across the area. However, this will be the start of an
anomalously strong upper high(+2SD) from the Great Lakes into
Canada to build east and into the area this weekend. Thus,
surface high pressure centered east of the area will be replaced
by a strengthening high across eastern Canada into the Northeast.
12Z HRRR and HREF solutions point to a chance of low clouds and
patchy fog again late tonight, mainly across LI and SE CT.
Model soundings show the moisture to be extremely shallow and
may be more of ground fog.
Another night of light winds and good radiational cooling with
lows right around normal, mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Any lingering low clouds and fog in the morning will quickly mix
out. Strengthening surface high pressure across eastern Canada
will build south along the New England coast through Sunday. This
will mean a continuation of dry and warm conditions with the potential
for some patchy morning low clouds and fog again in the morning
Sunday.
Highs will generally be in the lower 80s Saturday, with a bit
cooler conditions on Sunday due to an easterly flow cooling the
boundary layer a bit. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s, warmest to the north and west of NYC. Lows Sunday
morning will again be in upper 50s to lower 60s, but closer to
the mid 60s for the NYC metro. Light southeast winds on Saturday
will be replaced by a slightly stronger east flow on Sunday,
most noticeable along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Tranquil weather will continue through Tuesday night with deep
layered ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface centered off
the Northeast Coast, which slowly drifts east Monday night through
mid-week. The high will protect the region from a slowly approaching
frontal system to the south with an associated slowly strengthening
low pressure system that treks north Sunday night through Monday
night. Current
SHORT TERM.
A surface trough moves through tonight, bringing a reinforcing shot
of cooler and drier air. Dew points continue to drop into the 40s.
Winds should diminish Monday night, especially inland, but not
enough for optimal radiational cooling under clear skies. Lows
are expected to drop to the middle and upper 40s across the
Lower Hudson Valley and inland southern Connecticut. 50s are
expected elsewhere, even into NYC.
Tranquil conditions and below normal temperatures are expected
Tuesday, with highs in the lower to middle 70s for the entire
forecast area. Slightly warmer readings are expected Wednesday.
Tuesday night seems to be the better night for outlying areas to
radiate with winds expected to become light and variable as the
center of the high approaches. Lows in the outlying areas will dip
into the lower to middle 40s, while elsewhere will generally see
lows in the 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure remains centered to our north and east through
Saturday.
VFR much of the period.
A general light S or SE flow into this evening. Interior terminals
may remain light and variable through the remainder of the day.
Possible low stratus and mist development at coastal terminals early
Saturday morning. Confidence in coverage and occurrence remain low,
but maintained a TEMPO for IFR cigs 9Z to 13Z Sat for the city,
KISP, and KGON. LIFR cannot be ruled out during this time either.
Skies clear by mid morning, with a light NE wind going SE into the
afternoon at all terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KLGA could hold on to NE winds 1-2 hours longer than currently
forecast.
IFR or lower conditions possible Sat AM with low stratus and mist
development.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but a chance of MVFR or lower
fog/clouds for each late night/early morning.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with SHRA possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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High pressure will continue to promote a weak pressure gradient with
light winds through tomorrow with sub-advisory conditions. East
winds winds increase a little on Sunday, but remaining below
advisory thresholds.
Seas are forecast to build to 4 to 5 ft seas Monday and continue
into the middle of next week as a low pressure system remains well
south of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic concerns through next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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With an approaching full moon for next week on September 17th,
astronomical levels will be rising leading up to that date. With the
continuous easterly flow, this will help build seas and allow for
some piling of water. Winds are expected to remain generally
light, near 10 kt or less. While some of the guidance is showing
waters level increasing, there is general consensus of keeping
them below minor coastal flooding benchmarks. However, this will
likely depend on the development of low pressure off the Carolina
coast early next week.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches today and Saturday due to a SE swell.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...