422
FXUS61 KOKX 132343
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
743 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through early next week. An area
of low pressure and associated frontal system may impact the
area mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Only minor changes needed for this forecast update.
A mid level shortwave trough passes off the New England coast
this evening with a really weak surface reflection moving
across the area. However, this will be the start of an
anomalously strong upper high(+2SD) from the Great Lakes into
Canada to build east and into the area this weekend. Thus,
surface high pressure centered east of the area will be replaced
by a strengthening high across eastern Canada into the Northeast.
12Z HRRR and HREF solutions point to a chance of low clouds and
patchy fog again late tonight, mainly across LI and SE CT.
Model soundings show the moisture to be extremely shallow and
may be more of ground fog.
Another night of light winds and good radiational cooling with
lows right around normal, mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any lingering low clouds and fog in the morning will quickly mix
out. Strengthening surface high pressure across eastern Canada
will build south along the New England coast through Sunday. This
will mean a continuation of dry and warm conditions with the potential
for some patchy morning low clouds and fog again in the morning
Sunday.
Highs will generally be in the lower 80s Saturday, with a bit
cooler conditions on Sunday due to an easterly flow cooling the
boundary layer a bit. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s, warmest to the north and west of NYC. Lows Sunday
morning will again be in upper 50s to lower 60s, but closer to
the mid 60s for the NYC metro. Light southeast winds on Saturday
will be replaced by a slightly stronger east flow on Sunday,
most noticeable along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tranquil weather will continue through Tuesday night with deep
layered ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface centered off
the Northeast Coast, which slowly drifts east Monday night through
mid-week. The high will protect the region from a slowly approaching
frontal system to the south with an associated slowly strengthening
low pressure system that treks north Sunday night through Monday
night.
Aloft, strong ridge will gradually shift offshore Tuesday through
mid to late week. An upper level trough to the west slowly
approaches the local region during this time, with the operational
ECMWF weaker with this feature compared to the operational GFS and
Canadian models.
At the surface, this translates to a departure of high pressure
farther offshore Tuesday through Friday and a slowly approaching
frontal system from the west. By Wednesday through Friday, rain
showers are forecast. Highest chances relatively speaking are for
more SW parts of the region Wednesday through Wednesday night with
otherwise mostly slight chance POPs.
Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal for daytime highs
but generally above normal for late night to early morning lows.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered to our north and east through
Saturday.
VFR much of the period.
A light S or SE flow this evening becomes light and variable at
most terminals overnight. Flow becomes light E/SE by mid-morning
tomorrow.
Possible low stratus and mist development at coastal terminals
late tonight into early Saturday morning. Confidence in
coverage and occurrence remain low, but maintained a TEMPO for
IFR cigs 9Z to 13Z Sat for the city, KISP, and KGON. LIFR cannot
be ruled out during this time either. Skies clear by mid
morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
IFR or lower conditions possible Sat AM with possible low
stratus and mist development.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night-Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but a chance of MVFR or
lower fog/clouds for each late night/early morning.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with SHRA possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to promote a weak pressure gradient with
light winds through tomorrow with sub-advisory conditions. East
winds winds increase a little on Sunday, but remaining below
advisory thresholds.
Seas are forecast to build to 4 to 5 ft seas Monday and continue
into the middle of next week as a low pressure system remains well
south of the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an approaching full moon for next week on September 17th,
astronomical levels will be rising leading up to that date. With the
continuous easterly flow, this will help build seas and allow for
some piling of water. Winds are expected to remain generally
light, near 10 kt or less. While some of the guidance is showing
waters level increasing, there is general consensus of keeping
them below minor coastal flooding benchmarks. However, this will
likely depend on the development of low pressure off the Carolina
coast early next week.
There is a low risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches Friday and Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...