362
FXUS61 KOKX 141133
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through early next week. An area
of low pressure and associated frontal system will impact the
area mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes were made with this update. The forecast
remains on track.
Any lingering low clouds and fog in the morning will quickly mix
out after 8am. Strengthening surface high pressure across
eastern Canada will build south along the New England coast
through Sunday. This will mean a continuation of dry and warm
conditions with the potential for some patchy morning low clouds
and fog again in the morning Sunday.
Highs will generally be in the lower 80s Saturday. Lows Sunday
morning will again be in upper 50s to lower 60s, but closer to the
mid 60s for the NYC metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure and a strong longwave ridge aloft will keep
the sunshine and dry weather around for Sunday and Monday.
Due to increased easterly flow, highs will be cooler on Sunday and
Monday in comparison to Saturday. Highs are forecast to be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday, warmest to the north and
west of NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the NBM, except for winds during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame
where a NBM/Consall blend was used. This blend should capture the
winds a bit better with low pressure passing south of the region.
Otherwise, the strong ridge over the area continues to gradually
shift offshore Tuesday through mid to late week. Meanwhile, an upper
level trough to the west slowly approaches the local region during
this time.
At the surface, the high pressure departs farther offshore Tuesday
through Friday with a frontal system slowly approaching from the
west. Expect precipitation to return to the forecast Wednesday
through Friday, mainly in the form of rain showers. Highest chances
will mainly be across the southern half of the region on both
Wednesday and Thursday. POPs remain in the forecast on Friday, but
chances for rain will be lower.
The warmest day in the long term will be on Tuesday with highs in
the upper 70s and lower 80s. Wednesday through Saturday, expect
highs in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered to our north and east today.
VFR much of the period.
Some stratus/fog developed, mainly east of the NYC terminals
this morning which is quickly eroding away. All terminals are
VFR except KGON, which should be VFR by 12z.
Light and variable continue at the terminals early this
morning. The flow remains light light but becomes more E/SE by
mid-morning. The E/SE flow continues for much of the day
Saturday, then becomes light and variable once again tonight.
Once again, can not rule out stratus/fog tonight, but
confidence of timing and coverage too low to include in the TAF.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected today.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but a chance of MVFR or lower
fog/clouds for each late night/early morning.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with SHRA possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to promote a weak pressure gradient with
light winds through today with sub-advisory conditions. East winds
winds increase a little on Sunday and Monday, but remaining below
advisory thresholds.
Small craft seas are expected during the middle of next week as a
low pressure system remains well south of the area. Seas will remain
between 5-6 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an approaching full moon for next week on September 17th,
astronomical levels will be rising leading up to that date. With the
continuous easterly flow, this will help build seas and allow for
some piling of water. Winds are expected to remain generally light,
near 10 kt or less. While some of the guidance is showing waters
level increasing, there is general consensus of keeping them below
minor coastal flooding benchmarks. However, this will likely depend
on the development of low pressure off the Carolina coast early next
week.
There is a low risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches
Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/BR
HYDROLOGY...BC/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...