996
FXUS61 KOKX 141429
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1029 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through early next week. An
area of low pressure and associated frontal system will impact
the area mid to late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strengthening surface high pressure across eastern Canada will
build south along the New England coast through Sunday. This
will mean a continuation of dry and warm conditions with the
potential for some patchy morning low clouds and fog again in
the morning Sunday.
High temps today will generally be in the lower 80s. Low temps
tonight will again be in upper 50s to lower 60s, but closer to
the mid 60s for the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure and a strong longwave ridge aloft will
keep the sunshine and dry weather around for Sunday and
Monday.
Due to increased easterly flow, highs will be cooler on Sunday
and Monday in comparison to Saturday. Highs are forecast to be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday, warmest to the
north and west of NYC.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close
to the NBM, except for winds during the Tuesday-Wednesday time
frame where a NBM/Consall blend was used. This blend should
capture the winds a bit better with low pressure passing south
of the region.
Otherwise, the strong ridge over the area continues to gradually
shift offshore Tuesday through mid to late week. Meanwhile, an
upper level trough to the west slowly approaches the local
region during this time.
At the surface, the high departs farther offshore Tuesday
through Friday with a frontal system slowly approaching from the
west. Expect precipitation to return to the forecast Wednesday
through Friday, mainly in the form of rain showers.
Highest chances will mainly be across the NYC metro area and
Long Island compared to areas farther north both Wednesday and
Thursday. PoP remains in the forecast on Friday, but chances
should be lower.
The warmest day in the long term will be on Tuesday with highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Wednesday through Saturday,
expect highs in the 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered to our north and east today.
VFR through at least the evening push. Can not rule out low
stratus/fog overnight, will re-evaluate the potential for the
18Z TAF.
NE flow 5-10 kt should become SE this afternoon with coastal sea
breezes. E-SE flow tonight should become either light E-NE or
light/variable.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Sea breezes could come in 1/2 to 1 hr sooner than fcst.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday through Tuesday: Chance of MVFR or lower cond with low clouds/fog
each late night/early morning, otherwise VFR.
Wednesday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower cond possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will continue to promote a weak pressure gradient
with light winds through today with sub-advisory conditions.
East winds winds increase a little on Sunday and Monday, but
remaining below advisory thresholds.
Small craft seas are expected during the middle of next week as
a low pressure system remains well south of the area.
Seas will remain between 5-6 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
With an approaching full moon for next week on the 17th,
astronomical high tides will be rising leading up to that date
and continuing into much of next week. Continuous easterly flow
will help build seas and allow for some piling of water. Winds
are expected to remain generally light, near 10 kt or less.
While some of the guidance is showing water levels increasing,
there is general consensus of keeping them below minor coastal
flooding benchmarks. However, this will likely depend on the
development of low pressure off the Carolina coast early next
week.
There is a low risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches Saturday and Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/BG
MARINE...BC/BR
HYDROLOGY...BC/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...