065
FXUS61 KOKX 141752
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
152 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through early next week. An
area of low pressure and associated frontal system will impact
the area mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Seabreeze struggling to work north along the south shore of LI.
In fact, this enabled KJFK to briefly warm up to 84 during the
last hour. This will also be more of hybrid seabreeze as
strengthening high pressure builds southward along the New
England, with winds becoming mainly SE.
Otherwise, dry and warm conditions this afternoon with the
potential for some patchy morning low clouds and fog again late
tonight into Sunday morning.
High temps today will generally be in the lower 80s with a few
mid 80s readings in and around NYC. Low temps tonight will
again be in upper 50s to lower 60s, but closer to the mid 60s
for the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure and a strong longwave ridge aloft will
keep the sunshine and dry weather around for Sunday and
Monday.
Due to increased easterly flow, highs will be cooler on Sunday
and Monday in comparison to Saturday. Highs are forecast to be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday, warmest to the
north and west of NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close
to the NBM, except for winds during the Tuesday-Wednesday time
frame where a NBM/Consall blend was used. This blend should
capture the winds a bit better with low pressure passing south
of the region.
Otherwise, the strong ridge over the area continues to gradually
shift offshore Tuesday through mid to late week. Meanwhile, an
upper level trough to the west slowly approaches the local
region during this time.
At the surface, the high departs farther offshore Tuesday
through Friday with a frontal system slowly approaching from the
west. Expect precipitation to return to the forecast Wednesday
through Friday, mainly in the form of rain showers.
Highest chances will mainly be across the NYC metro area and
Long Island compared to areas farther north both Wednesday and
Thursday. PoP remains in the forecast on Friday, but chances
should be lower.
The warmest day in the long term will be on Tuesday with highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Wednesday through Saturday,
expect highs in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain centered to the north and east.
SE sea breezes are already in at KBDR/KGON. S sea breeze just
made it thru KJFK after 17Z and should back SE by 20Z. SE sea
breezes elsewhere should make it to KISP/KHPN by 19Z, KLGA/KEWR
by 21Z, and KTEB by 22Z. Light SE flow tonight backs ENE
overnight, then increases to 5-10 kt during the daylight hrs
Sunday morning.
Flight cat uncertain for the Sunday AM push as the flow turns
more ENE, as there could be an accompanying push of low clouds
from east to west overnight from about 07Z-09Z til 12Z-14Z. Most
likely terminal to see IFR cond is KGON, at most of the other
terminals have kept flight cat VFR but with scattered low
clouds. Will have to re- evaluate this with later TAF issuances.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected attm.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon through Tuesday: Chance of MVFR or lower cond
with low clouds/fog each late night/early morning, otherwise
VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower
cond possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to promote a weak pressure gradient
with light winds through today with sub-advisory conditions.
East winds winds increase a little on Sunday and Monday, but
remaining below advisory thresholds.
Small craft seas are expected during the middle of next week as
a low pressure system remains well south of the area.
Seas will remain between 5-6 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an approaching full moon for next week on the 17th,
astronomical high tides will be rising leading up to that date
and continuing into much of next week. Continuous easterly flow
will help build seas and allow for some piling of water. Winds
are expected to remain generally light, near 10 kt or less.
While some of the guidance is showing water levels increasing,
there is general consensus of keeping them below minor coastal
flooding benchmarks. However, this will likely depend on the
development of low pressure off the Carolina coast early next
week.
There is a low risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches today and Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BR
NEAR TERM...BR/DW
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BC/BR
HYDROLOGY...BC/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...