727
FXUS61 KOKX 151403
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1003 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the Northeast remains through Monday. A frontal
system then slowly approaches from the southwest through mid-week
and remains in the vicinity through the end of next week. A back
door cold front moves through late next week into the first half of
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast remains on track with no meaningful adjustments.
Deep layered ridging remains in place. The red visible band
indicating that valley and low lying rural fog has burned off.
Therefore a good deal of sunshine from here on out for today.
Some clouds across NE NJ and Interior So. CT for a few more
hours, but basically a mostly sunny forecast going into the
afternoon.
Large dome of high pressure will reside across the area today
with easterly flow and temperatures at or slightly above normal
for today. Highs will be in the mid-70s to lower 80s, with the
warmest temperatures just west of the NYC metro in NE NJ.
Localized sea breezes should result again in fair weather
cumulus at times.
With light winds tonight and mostly clear skies, optimal radiational
cooling conditions are expected with lows in the 50s for most.
However, some interior areas and the LI Pine Barrens could drop into
the upper-40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A developing low along the Carolina coast is forecast to track well
south of the area on Monday and Tuesday. NHC is monitoring this area
for potential tropical development. An inverted surface trough may
develop along this low, extended into our area on TUesday. This
along with gradually increasing moisture could lead to an isolated
shower or two in the afternoon on Tuesday. It will also lead to
increased cloud cover, which will begin to increase south to north
on Monday, sticking around on Tuesday.
Highs will be the mid-70s Monday and Tuesday. Monday night will
still be somewhat cool in the low-50s to low-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period starts off with an area of low pressure over
the Carolinas. This low will slowly move northwestward toward the
Ohio Valley through mid-week. An associated frontal system will
approach from the southwest and will begin to impact the region
mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The low and frontal system get caught under the upper level ridging
over the eastern US from mid to late week and a prolonged period of
unsettled weather is possible as weak flow under the ridge will mean
slow movement of these features. Right now, it looks like the most
likely period of rain is Tuesday night through Thursday, especially
if the 00z ECMWF/Canadian pans out. The 00z GFS/NAM have backed off
on this idea and keeps the area mostly dry during this period. There
is a low chance right now of flooding, and the Weather Prediction
Center has place much of the forecast area in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall Wednesday into Thursday. There is a great deal of
uncertainty and the forecast is likely to change over the next few
days. Due to uncertainty, stuck close to the NBM/CONSALL through the
long term.
Thereafter, the system finally begins to nudge south and east with
the approach of a back door cold front that moves through Friday
night. High pressure builds in from the northeast on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain centered to the north and east.
Generally looking at VFR conditions today. There is some lower
cigs around the region, however improvement has already begun,
so any sub-VFR conditions should dissipate by 13z. Another
chance of sub-VFR cigs once again tonight, however as with the
last few nights, confidence of timing and placement too low to
include in the TAFs.
Light flow increases to 5-10 kt this morning, becoming SE mid
to late afternoon.
Full
sunshine is expected with a light easterly flow to start before
southeasterly coastal sea breezes.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday through Tuesday: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions with
low clouds/fog each late night/early morning, otherwise VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower
conditions possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will remain north and east of the waters through
Monday, weakening on Tuesday. The easterly flow increases to
10-15kt on the ocean waters for Sunday through Tuesday with a
few gusts possibly approaching 20 kt. This will allow for seas
to slowly build with the potential for SCA seas around 5 ft
moving into the waters Monday afternoon, especially west of Fire
Island Inlet. However, for now have capped waves at 4 feet.
For now, expecting Sub-advisory conditions are in the forecast
through Thursday. However, an extended period of easterly flow over
the ocean waters may allow seas to build to near 5 ft Tuesday night
through Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
An extended period of rain is possible from Tuesday night through
Thursday. There is a great deal of uncertainty this far out. The
Weather Prediction Center has placed much of the forecast area
in marginal risk for excessive rainfall. One factor against
flooding would be the antecedent dry conditions over the last
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an approaching full moon on the 17th, astronomical high
tides will be rising leading up to that date and continuing into
much of next week. Continuous easterly flow will help build
seas and allow for some piling of water. Winds are expected to
remain generally light, near 10 kt or less. While some of the
guidance is showing water levels increasing, there is general
consensus of keeping them below minor coastal flooding
benchmarks. However, this will likely depend on the development
of low pressure off the Carolina coast early next week.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
ocean beaches Sunday and Monday with an easterly flow
developing.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BR
NEAR TERM...JE/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/BR
HYDROLOGY...BC/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...