913
FXUS61 KOKX 271151
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
751 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will remain just south of the area today as weak
high pressure noses in from the north. A complex frontal system
then approaches from the southwest by tonight. A stationary
front will remain just south of the area as high pressure builds
in from the north on Saturday and lingers through Monday. Low
pressure passes to the south Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by
a frontal passage late Wednesday into next Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast generally on track with minor adjustments to account
for the most recent observations. A thins line of light showers
persists through southern CT and portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley this morning. These showers should gradually dissipate
through the early morning.
Weak high pressure will begin to build into the area today as a
complex frontal system approaches from the southwest into the
afternoon and evening. Much of the day should be dry but an
isolated shower can`t be ruled out for southern areas into the
afternoon.
As the frontal system approaches from the southwest later today, an
area of deformation on the far northern edge of the frontal system
may result in the development of light showers into the evening. The
showers likely don`t make much northward progression and the region
of forcing stalls over the southwestern portions of the area
tonight. This may allow for additional shower activity into the
overnight hours and early Saturday morning.
Highs today will be seasonable, generally in the low to middle 70s.
Lows tonight will be in the low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure begins to build into the area from the north into
Saturday and through the weekend. At the same time, a stationary
boundary on the northeastern portion of the cut-off low over the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys remains over the southwestern
portion of the CWA. Additional scattered shower activity may persist
into Saturday and early Sunday. Northeastern portions of the area
may not see any shower activity at all the entire weekend. The
pressure gradient tightens a bit over the area this weekend allowing
for a persistent easterly flow to once again develop Saturday into
Sunday. This will both moderate high temperatures and keep low level
moisture in place, even as high pressure builds in. Areas of morning
fog are possible both Saturday and Sunday.
High pressure builds in a little more firmly on Sunday, pushing the
showers further to the south and allowing for a generally drier day,
despite continued low level moisture and generally overcast to
mostly cloudy skies persisting. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The overall forecast thinking has not changed much in the long term
and continued to stay close to the consensus forecast using the
latest NBM.
The upper low to our west will slowly weaken and slide east towards
the Middle Atlantic coast early next week with the second low moving
further offshore. The guidance is still differing in the speed and
handling of the upper low to the west, but the overall impact to the
region will be minimal. Despite the differences, there should be
weak surface low development just off the Middle Atlantic sometime
Monday night into Tuesday. The low then slides south and east of the
area through Wednesday. The 12z guidance is starting to come into
better agreement with the low far enough from the coast to limit how
much precip could make into the area. NBM deterministic PoPs are
still in chance category and this seems reasonable given the
uncertainty this far out with the evolution of the upper levels. The
other feature will be continued high pressure ridging down across
the northeast Saturday night through at least Tuesday. The high
should begin to weaken on Wednesday in response to a progressive
northern stream trough approaching the from the west. An associated
front will move across sometime late Wednesday into Thursday, likely
weakening as it moves towards the coast.
Sky conditions should remain mostly cloudy for much of the period.
The atmosphere should dry out considerably once the front passes mid-
late week. Temperatures look to remain close to normal levels.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front has dropped south of the terminals with some
lingering post-frontal showers. Conditions dry out today with
high pressure building in from the north.
Plan to continue with an improving trend to VFR this morning as
drier air works in from the north. However, some newer guidance
is showing a less optimistic trend with the potential for MVFR
conditions for the NYC and KISP terminals to persist through
tonight. Latest obs however seem to lend more support to the
more optimistic forecast. This will have to be closely watched
with the cold front not getting too far south of the area before
attempting to return northward later today.
Chance of MVFR returning tonight, mainly at the NYC terminals
as a warm front approaches from the south. There is a low chance
of showers.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Chance that MVFR conditions persist through the day and into
tonight with a cold front stalling not too far south of the
terminals.
Amendments are likely for timing of flight category changes and
wind shifts to the ESE.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers with the best chance being
across the NYC terminals.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR in showers.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected for all waters through at least
tonight. A tightening pressure gradient on Saturday will allow for
gusts to approach 25kt on the ocean with wave heights building to
near 5 feet. SCA conditions will be possible as early as Saturday
afternoon and linger through Sunday afternoon. Sub-SCA are then
expected on all waters through Monday night. SCA conditions possible
again on Tuesday as low pressure passes to the south of the
area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk today as swells subside a bit
with weaker winds. The risk may start out moderate Saturday before
becoming high in the afternoon as seas and swells build along with a
stronger easterly flow.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MW
HYDROLOGY...MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...