221
FXUS61 KOKX 280751
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary front will remain just south of the area as high
pressure noses in from the northeast today and remains through
Tuesday. Low pressure tracks east through the Mid Atlantic Monday
and moves offshore Monday night into Tuesday. A cold frontal passage
follows Wednesday night, with high pressure returning to end the
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The area is currently in between two upper level lows, one to our
northeast off the coast of Nova Scotia and one to our southwest over
the Ohio Valley. In between these two lows, an upper level
ridge is nosing into the area from the southeast. The upper low
over Nova Scotia will track east, well north of the area, but
the upper low to our southwest will slowly weaken and drift
towards the area. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain
stalled just to our south, with high pressure nosing in from
the northeast.

This pattern will lead to a persistent easterly flow and plenty of
cloud cover given how much moisture is around. It will also lead to
chances of light rain showers for most of the area. There is higher
confidence in showers for NYC and northeast NJ as this area will be
closest to the stalled boundary and furthest from the high nosing in
from the northeast. Lift is weak, but because there could be showers
around for a good part of the day and night total QPF could be .3-.4
inches for NYC and northeast NJ. Showers have already been
working through the area, with radar returns as far as central
Suffolk up through southern Fairfield.

The tightening pressure gradient today will lead to some gusty
conditions, especially at the coast where 20-25 mph gusts are
possible, with an isolated 30 mph gust possible. Stuck close to NBM
for high and low temps today.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper level low to our southwest continues to drift towards the
area and weaken, likely passing over the area Monday night. The
surface pattern generally stays the same, with low pressure starting
to pass to our south Monday night.

With high pressure becoming a bit more dominant on Sunday,
conditions should be mostly dry. Carried slight chance for the
western half of the area because PoPs will largely depend on the
strength of the high. PoP chances then increase a bit Monday night
as low pressure passes to our south. Went lower than the NBM after
looking at the latest 00z global guidance QPF outputs. Again, the
strength of the high will play a role here and confidence overall is
not too high.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The upper low over the Mid Atlantic early in the week tracks nearby
to start the period, likely shifting offshore by Tuesday night.
Cloud cover and rain chances persist during this time, though
coverage will depend on the placement of the system. The 00Z global
models generally keep the region on the northern periphery of this
activity with strong ridging over New England, so possible portions
of the region remain dry. QPF is expected to remain light regardless.

As the system exits offshore, a digging upper trough behind it
swinging through the Upper Great Lakes looks to send a cold front
toward the region on Wednesday, potentially moving through Wednesday
night. Forcing appears strongest to the north, and local impacts
appear limited at this time. Thereafter, ridging over the Central US
looks to translate east, and surface high pressure builds in behind
the fropa. This should set up a drier pattern for late week.

Temperatures will remain near normal for early autumn. Afternoon
highs generally top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with morning
lows into the 40s and 50s. The national blend was generally followed
for this update.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The region remains between high pressure to the north and a slowly
approaching frontal boundary to the south.

VFR conditions continue to decline to MVFR at most terminals early
this morning as cigs lower, exception KGON. Showers move in from the
south and west, starting first at NYC terminals, pushing northeast
past daybreak. The rain, or at least the chance for rain, then
lingers through much of the TAF period, highest chances at the city
terminals. Cigs should largely stay MVFR at most sites thru the day.

Winds remain easterly through the TAF period. Speeds increase by
late Saturday morning along the coast to 10-15G20kt. Inland
terminals will remain closer to 10 kt with no or occasional gusts.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of category changes could be off by a couple of hours,
amendments likely.

Low confidence in coverage and timing of rain showers.

IFR cigs possible at times, especially Saturday night into Sunday AM.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night: MVFR with showers mainly for the metro terminals.
Possible IFR at times. Easterly wind gusts up to 20 kt, mainly along
the coast.

Sunday: Improvement to VFR in the morning.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Increasing chance of showers and MVFR Monday
afternoon into Monday night.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers. Easterly wind gusts 15-
20 kt day into evening.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers. Afternoon northerly
wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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A Small Craft Advisory begins over the western two ocean zones
(ANZ355 and ANZ353) at 8 am, and then the far eastern ocean
zone (ANZ350) at 2 pm. The pressure gradient tightens over the
are this morning and an easterly flow will strengthen. Winds
peak this afternoon, with gusts 25 to 30 knots for the far
western ocean zone and 20 to 25 knots at the other two ocean
zones. Seas will also rise to 5 to 6 feet by mid morning. Wind
gusts drop below 25 kt tonight, but seas will remain elevated
through at least Sunday afternoon.

Seas may build to over 5 ft on the ocean by early Tuesday with
passing low pressure nearby, potentially remaining elevated thru the
middle of next week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A high rip current risk is now in effect for both today and
Sunday.

An easterly flow picks up today to 15 to 20 kt as well
as seas building to 4 to 6 feet. Winds and waves have trended
higher for Sunday than the previous forecast, so extended the
high rip risk through Sunday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday afternoon for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/JT
HYDROLOGY...DR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JT