781
FXUS61 KOKX 281411
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1011 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain just south of the area as high
pressure noses in from the northeast today, and remains through
Tuesday. Low pressure tracks east through the Mid Atlantic
Monday and moves offshore Monday night into Tuesday. A cold
frontal passage follows Wednesday night, with high pressure
returning to end the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Based on current rainfall in the NYC metro and across Long
Island, and the HRRR indicating showers for the new couple of
hours, increased probabilities to likely for these areas.
The area is currently in between two upper level lows, one to
our northeast off the coast of Nova Scotia and one to our
southwest over the Ohio Valley. In between these two lows, an
upper level ridge is nosing into the area from the southeast.
The upper low over Nova Scotia will track east, well north of
the area, but the upper low to our southwest will slowly weaken
and drift towards the area. At the surface, a frontal boundary
will remain stalled just to our south, with high pressure nosing
in from the northeast.
This pattern will lead to a persistent easterly flow and plenty of
cloud cover given how much moisture is around. It will also lead to
chances of light rain showers for most of the area. There is higher
confidence in showers for NYC and northeast NJ as this area will be
closest to the stalled boundary and furthest from the high nosing in
from the northeast. Lift is weak, but because there could be showers
around for a good part of the day and night total QPF could be .3-.4
inches for NYC and northeast NJ. Showers have already been
working through the area, with radar returns as far as central
Suffolk up through southern Fairfield.
The tightening pressure gradient today will lead to some gusty
conditions, especially at the coast where 20-25 mph gusts are
possible, with an isolated 30 mph gust possible. Stuck close to NBM
for high and low temps today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low to our southwest continues to drift towards the
area and weaken, likely passing over the area Monday night. The
surface pattern generally stays the same, with low pressure starting
to pass to our south Monday night.
With high pressure becoming a bit more dominant on Sunday,
conditions should be mostly dry. Carried slight chance for the
western half of the area because PoPs will largely depend on the
strength of the high. PoP chances then increase a bit Monday night
as low pressure passes to our south. Went lower than the NBM after
looking at the latest 00z global guidance QPF outputs. Again, the
strength of the high will play a role here and confidence overall is
not too high.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper low over the Mid Atlantic early in the week tracks nearby
to start the period, likely shifting offshore by Tuesday night.
Cloud cover and rain chances persist during this time, though
coverage will depend on the placement of the system. The 00Z global
models generally keep the region on the northern periphery of this
activity with strong ridging over New England, so possible portions
of the region remain dry. QPF is expected to remain light regardless.
As the system exits offshore, a digging upper trough behind it
swinging through the Upper Great Lakes looks to send a cold front
toward the region on Wednesday, potentially moving through Wednesday
night. Forcing appears strongest to the north, and local impacts
appear limited at this time. Thereafter, ridging over the Central US
looks to translate east, and surface high pressure builds in behind
the fropa. This should set up a drier pattern for late week.
Temperatures will remain near normal for early autumn. Afternoon
highs generally top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with morning
lows into the 40s and 50s. The national blend was generally followed
for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The region remains between high pressure to the north and a
slowly approaching frontal boundary to the south.
IFR-MVFR at most terminals this morning, with the exception at
KGON. Ceilings should largely remain MVFR this afternoon into
tonight, although some local IFR is possible at times. Light
rain will continue into the afternoon, especially over the NYC
metro and close to the coast. The light rain should become more
spotty this evening, but should slowly dissipate overnight.
Some slow improvement to VFR expected by Sunday afternoon.
Winds remain easterly through the TAF period. Speeds increase
this morning along the coast to 10-15G20kt. Inland terminals
will remain closer to 10 kt with potential of occasional gusts.
Gusts should end this evening, with speeds remaining near 10 kt
on Sunday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence ceiling forecast into the afternoon. IFR may
continue a few hours longer than currently indicated.
Gusts could end up occasional this afternoon, especially KEWR
and KTEB.
IFR ceilings possible tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Improvement to VFR by afternoon.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Increasing chance of showers and MVFR Monday
afternoon into Monday night.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers. Easterly wind gusts 15-
20 kt day into evening.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers. Afternoon northerly
wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Increased winds gusts slightly across the western ocean waters
to better reflect current conditions. Otherwise, no changes.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect over the western two ocean
zones (ANZ355 and ANZ353), and then the far eastern ocean zone
(ANZ350) beginning at 2 pm. The pressure gradient tightens over
the are this morning and an easterly flow will strengthen.
Winds peak this afternoon, with gusts 25 to 30 knots for the far
western ocean zone and 20 to 25 knots at the other two ocean
zones. Seas will also rise to 5 to 6 feet by mid morning. Wind
gusts drop below 25 kt tonight, but seas will remain elevated
through at least Sunday afternoon.
Seas may build to over 5 ft on the ocean by early Tuesday with
passing low pressure nearby, potentially remaining elevated thru the
middle of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk is now in effect for both today and
Sunday.
An easterly flow picks up today to 15 to 20 kt as well
as seas building to 4 to 6 feet. Winds and waves have trended
higher for Sunday than the previous forecast, so extended the
high rip risk through Sunday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday afternoon for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
Sunday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/JT
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR/DS
MARINE...DR/MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...DR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...