236
FXUS61 KOKX 282156
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
556 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains south of the area through Sunday
night as high pressure noses in from the northeast. The high
remains Monday and Tuesday as low pressure tracks east through
the Mid Atlantic Monday and moves offshore Monday night into
Tuesday. A cold front then passes through Wednesday afternoon
into night, followed by high pressure through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Bumped up PoPs heading into this evening based on radar and
surface obs. Rest of the forecast is mostly on track.
High pressure remains across the northeast and nosing into the
region through Sunday. Meanwhile, a stationary front remains
south of the region, near the Delmarva region, with a weak
frontal wave along the coast. Light overrunning rain continues
across the southwestern sections of the region into this
evening, and have increased probabilities to categorical, more
in line with the CAMs. Upper riding does build into the
northeast Sunday, as the surface high noses a little farther to
the south. Light rain remains possible across the southwestern
sections, and have maintained chances probabilities into Sunday
morning, then went dry across the forecast area, although some
global guidance does hint at some light rain Sunday afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
With the high remaining across the northeast and into the
forecast area, keeping the region mainly dry until later Monday
as the surface high is expected to begin to weaken and the
frontal wave along the mid Atlantic coast begins to track into
the western Atlantic. There is some uncertainty with the
strength of the high and timing of its weakening Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure emerges off the Mid-Atlantic coast and slowly
passes to our south offshore Monday night through Tuesday night.
Still some differences among the global models regarding the
northern periphery of rainfall from this system with the GFS
being the northern outlier. Will remain close to NBM PoPs and
maintain a slight chance to a chance of rain through the period.
Any rain amounts should be light.
For Wednesday, weak high pressure remains over the forecast
area in the wake of the offshore low drifting farther east. A
cold front approaches during the day and passes through most
likely during the afternoon to evening hours. Moisture will be
limited by the time this occurs, so it likely remains dry. High
pressure builds in behind the front and remains in control
through Saturday with a continuation of dry weather. High
temperatures through the long term forecast shouldn`t stray too
far from seasonable, which is generally 70-75.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The region will remain between high pressure to the north and a
slowly approaching frontal boundary to the south this weekend.
IFR into early evening for NYC terminals with MVFR at most other
sites. MVFR should return tonight at NYC terminals and should
prevail elsewhere through much of Sunday. The only exception is at
KGON where VFR prevails with a chance of MVFR late tonight into
early Sunday morning.
Light rain will continue into early this evening, especially over
the NYC metro and close to the coast. The light rain should become
more spotty tonight, but should slowly dissipate through early
Sunday morning.
Winds remain ENE-NE through the TAF period. Wind speeds 10-15 kt
with gusts around 20 kt expected into early this evening.
Inland terminals will likely see winds closer to 10 kt or less. Any
gusts should end this evening. Wind speeds closer to 10 kt expected
on Sunday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence ceiling forecast into this evening. IFR may continue
a few hours longer than indicated.
Occasional gusts possible at LGA and EWR through 00z.
IFR ceilings possible late tonight/early Sunday.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday PM: MVFR in the afternoon, becoming VFR at night.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of rain late Monday into Monday night
with MVFR, especially near the coast.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain. ENE wind gusts 15-20 kt,
diminishing at night.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong pressure gradient remains over the western ocean
waters, west of Moriches Inlet, with strong and gusty easterly
winds continuing into Sunday morning. With the winds slower to
diminish, have extended the SCA for these waters until 800 PM
EDT Sunday. For the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet, the
timing of seas falling below 5 feet still looks OK, and the
advisory ends there at 200 PM EDT Sunday. Once ocean small craft
conditions end winds and seas are expected to remain below
advisory criteria through Monday.
Conditions across the non-ocean zones are expected to remain
below advisory criteria through the rest of the forecast period.
As for the ocean waters, both winds and seas reach advisory
thresholds Monday night with an easterly flow. This remains the
case through Tuesday night, but SCA conds will continue through
Wednesday night due to seas remaining elevated with a lingering
ESE swell.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high risk of rip current development continues through Sunday
with long period southeast swells.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday afternoon for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...