673
FXUS61 KOKX 291135
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
735 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains south of the area today while high
pressure noses in from the northeast. The high remains Monday
through Tuesday night while low pressure slowly passes south of the
area. A cold front passes through Wednesday, followed by high
pressure through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level ridge axis passes east today as an upper level low to
our southwest slowly weakens and approaches the area. At the
surface, a stalled frontal boundary remains to our south, with high
pressure nosing in from our northeast.
Light rain/drizzle continues over the area this morning and chances
remain through the day. Highest confidence in precipitation is for
NYC and northeast NJ, with eastern CT and eastern LI likely
remaining dry because of high pressure building in from the
northeast. The pressure gradient over the area remains relatively
tight early today, but slowly weakens through the day. 20 to 25 mph
gusts are expected again through the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains nosing in from the northeast while low
pressure passes to our south during the short term period. With high
pressure more established over the area on Monday, we will
likely be dry. The next chance of PoPs will be late Monday night
through Tuesday with low pressure passing to our south. The PoP
forecast for this has trended down and decided to go lower than
the NBM. The global models keep the northern edge of rain
offshore to our south. This will depend on strength of the high
to our north and exact track of the low. Either way at this time
no hydrologic impacts are expected.
Stuck close to NBM for temps during this period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Relatively tame pattern sets up mid to late week. Weak high pressure
briefly builds in behind the exiting offshore low Wednesday as a
trough digs over the Upper Great Lakes. This will send a cold front
toward the region, passing through by Wednesday evening. Best
forcing appears well to the north, and moisture will be limited, so
not anticipating much in the way of impacts from the fropa, perhaps
a few showers ahead of the boundary Wed evening across the northern
interior. More likely, the front moves through dry, with clearing
skies into Thursday as high pressure quickly rebuilds behind it. The
high slips offshore by Friday, but ridging remains in place to start
the upcoming weekend. Another cold front may approach Saturday, but
global ensembles once again keep this weak locally, with potentially
little impact.
Temperatures remain near to just above normal for early autumn.
Afternoon highs generally range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with
morning lows into the 40s and 50s. The national blend was followed
for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stationary front remains south of the region through tonight.
MVFR or lower much of the day. Likely some fluctuations between MVFR
and IFR this morning, before cigs largely prevail MVFR by early
afternoon. Rain chances gradually decrease through the day, but
spotty light rain into the afternoon cannot be ruled out.
Improvement to VFR possible by early evening, becoming likely
tonight.
ENE flow near 10 kt today, with occasional 15 to 20 kt gusts
possible along the coast. Similar flow and speeds expected on
Monday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely today with changing flight categories.
Occasional gusts to near 20 kt possible this afternoon.
Timing of improvement to VFR may be off by a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of rain late Monday into Monday night
with MVFR.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain. ENE wind gusts 15-20 kt,
diminishing at night.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to marine headlines. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
through today for the western two ocean zones and until 2 pm for the
eastern most ocean zone. A persistent easterly flow continues today,
but will slowly weaken heading into the afternoon. Seas over the
ocean are currently 5-6 feet and will slowly lower through the day.
Sub Small Craft Advisory criteria is then expected tonight through
Monday night before 5 ft waves could return to the ocean on
Tuesday. Elevated seas then persist thru Wednesday on the ocean
with lingering ESE swell. Seas are forecast to lower below 5 ft
Wed night, and sub SCA conditions are then expected on all
coastal waters thereafter.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip currents today with a strong easterly
flow and long period easterly swells.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/JT
HYDROLOGY...DR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...