640
FXUS61 KOKX 291747
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
147 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains south of the area while high
pressure noses in from the northeast into Tuesday. Low pressure
passes south of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front
passes through Wednesday, followed by high pressure through
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Still seeing enough low level moisture convergence over the NYC
metro to start the afternoon for light rain/drizzle. There has
been some erosion of the north edge of the rain shield and this
should slowly continue through the rest of the afternoon as
drier air begins to move in from the north and east. Adjusted
PoPs accordingly to account for the latest trends. Elsewhere, it
should be mostly dry for the rest of the afternoon/evening, but
a pocket of light rain or sprinkles remains possible.
Drier air will continue to erode away the low level moisture
with any lingering light rain/drizzle ending early this evening.
A subsidence inversion around 800-850 mb may help linger a
thinner layer of moisture leading to a continuation of mostly
cloudy skies overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains nosing in from the northeast while low
pressure passes to our south during the short term period. With
high pressure more established over the area on Monday, we will
likely be dry. The next chance of PoPs will be late Monday night
through Tuesday with low pressure passing to our south. The PoP
forecast for this has trended down and decided to go lower than
the NBM. The global models keep the northern edge of rain
offshore to our south. This will depend on strength of the high
to our north and exact track of the low. Either way at this time
no hydrologic impacts are expected.
Stuck close to NBM for temps during this period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Relatively tame pattern sets up mid to late week. Weak high
pressure briefly builds in behind the exiting offshore low
Wednesday as a trough digs over the Upper Great Lakes. This will
send a cold front toward the region, passing through by
Wednesday evening. Best forcing appears well to the north, and
moisture will be limited, so not anticipating much in the way of
impacts from the fropa, perhaps a few showers ahead of the
boundary Wed evening across the northern interior. More likely,
the front moves through dry, with clearing skies into Thursday
as high pressure quickly rebuilds behind it. The high slips
offshore by Friday, but ridging remains in place to start the
upcoming weekend. Another cold front may approach Saturday, but
global ensembles once again keep this weak locally, with
potentially little impact.
Temperatures remain near to just above normal for early autumn.
Afternoon highs generally range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with
morning lows into the 40s and 50s. The national blend was followed
for this update.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stationary front and wave of low pressure remain well to the
south of the region through Monday afternoon as high pressure to
the north slowly builds in late tonight through Monday.
Generally MVFR, with IFR at times through this afternoon, except
likely remaining MVFR at KBDR, KISP, and KGON into this evening.
With drier air moving in from the northeast and north conditions
will be slowly improving, with the NYC metro terminals becoming
VFR late tonight, and eastern terminals become VFR during the
evening hours. Timing of the improving conditions will
be dependent on how quickly dry moves into the region.
Light rain remains possible into this evening at the NYC metro
area.
A light ENE flow continues through the forecast period.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through the evening with changing flight
categories, improving to VFR after 07Z.
Timing of improvement to VFR is uncertain and may be off by +/-
a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of late day light rain at the NYC
metro terminals with MVFR possible. ENE wind gusts 15-20 kt,
diminishing at night.
Wednesday through Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early this
evening for the west of Moriches Inlet and until 2 pm east of
there. A persistent easterly flow continues today, but will
slowly weaken heading into the afternoon. Seas over the ocean
are currently 5-6 feet and will slowly lower through the day.
Sub Small Craft Advisory criteria is then expected tonight through
Monday night before 5 ft waves could return to the ocean on
Tuesday. Elevated seas then persist thru Wednesday on the ocean
with lingering ESE swell. Seas are forecast to lower below 5 ft
Wed night, and sub SCA conditions are then expected on all
coastal waters thereafter.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip currents today with a strong easterly
flow and long period easterly swells.
The final Surf Zone Forecast for the season was issued today.
Forecasts resume in 2025 before Memorial Day weekend on
Thursday May 22, 2025.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/JT
NEAR TERM...DS/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR/JT
HYDROLOGY...DR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...