736
FXUS61 KOKX 292200
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
600 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains south of the area while high
pressure noses in from the northeast into Tuesday. Low
pressure passes south of the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature from
Wednesday through the upcoming weekend with only a weak
cold front Wednesday night and again on Saturday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast has been updated to increase PoPs a little over the
next few hours. The rest of the forecast is on track.
Narrow corridor of moisture convergence continues to sit
over the NYC metro and portions of NE NJ. Starting to see
indications of radar returns diminishing in coverage, and this
should continue for couple of more hours this evening as the
convergence weakens. There will also be drier air working in
from the northeast this evening as high pressure continues to
nose down into the area. A few sprinkles or pockets of light
rain cannot be ruled out elsewhere this evening, but overall any
precip should end this evening.
Dry conditions are expected tonight, but mostly cloudy skies
will prevail with a subsidence inversion remaining from around
900 to 800 mb. Lows will be in the 50s across much of the area
with readings around 60 in the NYC metro.
Weakening upper level low will continue to slowly push east
towards the Middle Atlantic from the Ohio Valley on Monday. An
amplified upper ridge axis will remain over the northeast. This
pattern will help keep the surface high pressure to our
northeast, but allow it to ridge southwestward through the day.
The stationary boundary that has been south of the area will
push further south in response to the approaching upper low and
aforementioned surface ridging. There should be some breaks in
the clouds on Monday, but mostly cloudy conditions likely
continue through the day with high clouds and at least sct-bkn
stratocu. Highs likely end up near to slightly above normal in
the low to mid 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low will become an open wave Monday night into Tuesday
as it slides towards the Middle Atlantic coast. Ridging will
remain over the northeast both aloft and at the surface. A
surface low pressure will develop off the Carolinas and Middle
Atlantic coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The latest model
guidance is in excellent agreement that the low and its
associated precip will stay to the south of the area. The
consensus PoPs have also caught onto the global guidance trend
yielding a mostly dry forecast through Tuesday night. Will hold
onto a slight chance near the coast late Tuesday/Tuesday night
for now, but this may need to be removed if the latest trends
hold. Otherwise, mostly cloudy conditions will continue during
this time frame with temperatures near seasonable levels. Highs
will be in the upper 60s and low 70s and Tuesday with nighttime
temperatures largely in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure should be in control for Wednesday with a
departing offshore low to the southeast. A cold front
approaches during the day, but will be in a weakened state by
the time it crosses the forecast area Wednesday night as an
upper trough lifts into SE Canada. Moisture will be shallow as
well by this time, so will maintain a dry forecast through the
period. High pressure will then remain in place through the
upcoming weekend with dry weather for the most part. Can`t rule
out a shower or two Friday night into Saturday in association
with another cold front. Global models disagree regarding the
timing and strength of this front, but at least seem to agree on
a relatively weakly amplified flow aloft leading to a
progressive frontal passage.
Temperatures remain near to just above normal for early autumn.
Afternoon highs generally range from the upper 60s to mid 70s,
with morning lows into the 40s and 50s. The national blend was
followed for this update, with Friday being the warmest of the 5
days.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A stationary front and wave of low pressure remain well to the
south of the region through Monday afternoon as high pressure to
the north slowly builds in late tonight through Monday.
Generally MVFR, with IFR at times through this afternoon, except
likely remaining MVFR at KBDR, KISP, and KGON into this evening.
With drier air moving in from the northeast and north conditions
will be slowly improving, with the NYC metro terminals becoming
VFR late tonight, and eastern terminals become VFR during the
evening hours. Timing of the improving conditions will
be dependent on how quickly dry moves into the region.
Light rain remains possible into this evening at the NYC metro
area.
A light ENE flow continues through the forecast period.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through the evening with changing flight
categories, improving to VFR after 07Z.
Timing of improvement to VFR is uncertain and may be off by +/-
a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of late day light rain at the NYC
metro terminals with MVFR possible. ENE wind gusts 15-20 kt,
diminishing at night.
Wednesday through Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA continues on the ocean west of Moriches Inlet until 8 pm.
Seas will subside below 5 ft this evening. Winds and seas will
then remain below SCA levels Monday into Monday night. A
developing low pressure off the Middle Atlantic coast on Tuesday
will help ocean seas build to 5-6ft and bring the next period of
SCA conditions.
Elevated seas then persist thru Wednesday on the ocean with
lingering ESE swell. Seas are forecast to lower below 5 ft by
the end of Wednesday night, and sub SCA conditions are then
expected on all coastal waters thereafter.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS