426
FXUS61 KOKX 300232
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains south of the area while high
pressure noses in from the northeast into Tuesday. Low
pressure passes south of the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature from
Wednesday through the upcoming weekend with only a weak
cold front Wednesday night and again on Saturday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rain has lowered in coverage going into the start of the
evening with dry conditions returning for the entire local
region. Slightly increased clouds and slightly modified low
temperatures. Lows expected to be mainly in the 50s.
Radar returns diminished in coverage into this evening as the
convergence weakened. There will also be drier air working in
from the northeast this evening as high pressure continues to
nose down into the area.
Dry conditions are expected for the rest of tonight, but mostly
cloudy skies will prevail with a subsidence inversion remaining
from around 900 to 800 mb. Lows will be in the 50s across much
of the area with readings around 60 in the NYC metro.
Weakening upper level low will continue to slowly push east
towards the Middle Atlantic from the Ohio Valley on Monday. An
amplified upper ridge axis will remain over the northeast. This
pattern will help keep the surface high pressure to our
northeast, but allow it to ridge southwestward through the day.
The stationary boundary that has been south of the area will
push further south in response to the approaching upper low and
aforementioned surface ridging. There should be some breaks in
the clouds on Monday, but mostly cloudy conditions likely
continue through the day with high clouds and at least sct-bkn
stratocu. Highs likely end up near to slightly above normal in
the low to mid 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low will become an open wave Monday night into Tuesday
as it slides towards the Middle Atlantic coast. Ridging will
remain over the northeast both aloft and at the surface. A
surface low pressure will develop off the Carolinas and Middle
Atlantic coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The latest model
guidance is in excellent agreement that the low and its
associated precip will stay to the south of the area. The
consensus PoPs have also caught onto the global guidance trend
yielding a mostly dry forecast through Tuesday night. Will hold
onto a slight chance near the coast late Tuesday/Tuesday night
for now, but this may need to be removed if the latest trends
hold. Otherwise, mostly cloudy conditions will continue during
this time frame with temperatures near seasonable levels. Highs
will be in the upper 60s and low 70s and Tuesday with nighttime
temperatures largely in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure should be in control for Wednesday with a
departing offshore low to the southeast. A cold front
approaches during the day, but will be in a weakened state by
the time it crosses the forecast area Wednesday night as an
upper trough lifts into SE Canada. Moisture will be shallow as
well by this time, so will maintain a dry forecast through the
period. High pressure will then remain in place through the
upcoming weekend with dry weather for the most part. Can`t rule
out a shower or two Friday night into Saturday in association
with another cold front. Global models disagree regarding the
timing and strength of this front, but at least seem to agree on
a relatively weakly amplified flow aloft leading to a
progressive frontal passage.
Temperatures remain near to just above normal for early autumn.
Afternoon highs generally range from the upper 60s to mid 70s,
with morning lows into the 40s and 50s. The national blend was
followed for this update, with Friday being the warmest of the 5
days.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The region remains in between high pressure to the north and low
pressure along a stationary front to the south through the TAF
period. High pressure will slowly build in from the north. This
will keep easterly winds in place near 5-10 kts.
Expecting dry conditions for the TAF period and mainly MVFR
conditions overall tonight into Monday morning. East of NYC
terminals, more VFR is expected but KBDR and KISP will likely
exhibit fluctuation between VFR and MVFR. KGON has a mainly VFR
forecast. VFR expected for all terminals Monday afternoon
through the remainder of the TAF period.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Category forecast low to moderate confidence. Amendments possible as
categories could fluctuate tonight into Monday morning. IFR possible
Monday morning. Timing of VFR could be off by a few hours compared
to TAF. Categorical changes mainly due to variation of ceilings.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of late day light rain at the NYC
metro terminals with MVFR possible. Easterly wind gusts 15-20
kt, diminishing at night.
Wednesday through Friday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Seas below 5 ft for the rest of tonight. Overall, sub-SCA
conditions are expected for the rest of tonight across all local
waters. Winds and seas will then remain below SCA levels Monday
into Monday night. A developing low pressure off the Middle
Atlantic coast on Tuesday will help ocean seas build to 5-6ft
and bring the next period of SCA conditions.
Elevated seas then persist thru Wednesday on the ocean with
lingering ESE swell. Seas are forecast to lower below 5 ft by
the end of Wednesday night, and sub SCA conditions are then
expected on all coastal waters thereafter.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS