224
FXUS61 KOKX 300543
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
143 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains south of the area while high
pressure noses in from the northeast into Tuesday. Low
pressure passes south of the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature from
Wednesday through the upcoming weekend with only a weak
cold front Wednesday night and again on Saturday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry conditions are expected for the rest of the overnight, but
mostly cloudy skies will prevail with a subsidence inversion
remaining from around 900 to 800 mb. Lows will be in the 50s
across much of the area with readings around 60 in the NYC
metro.
Weakening upper level low will continue to slowly push east
towards the Middle Atlantic from the Ohio Valley on Monday. An
amplified upper ridge axis will remain over the northeast. This
pattern will help keep the surface high pressure to our
northeast, but allow it to ridge southwestward through the day.
The stationary boundary that has been south of the area will
push further south in response to the approaching upper low and
aforementioned surface ridging. There should be some breaks in
the clouds on Monday, but mostly cloudy conditions likely
continue through the day with high clouds and at least sct-bkn
stratocu. Highs likely end up near to slightly above normal in
the low to mid 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low will become an open wave Monday night into Tuesday
as it slides towards the Middle Atlantic coast. Ridging will
remain over the northeast both aloft and at the surface. A
surface low pressure will develop off the Carolinas and Middle
Atlantic coast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The latest model
guidance is in excellent agreement that the low and its
associated precip will stay to the south of the area. The
consensus PoPs have also caught onto the global guidance trend
yielding a mostly dry forecast through Tuesday night. Will hold
onto a slight chance near the coast late Tuesday/Tuesday night
for now, but this may need to be removed if the latest trends
hold. Otherwise, mostly cloudy conditions will continue during
this time frame with temperatures near seasonable levels. Highs
will be in the upper 60s and low 70s and Tuesday with nighttime
temperatures largely in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure should be in control for Wednesday with a
departing offshore low to the southeast. A cold front
approaches during the day, but will be in a weakened state by
the time it crosses the forecast area Wednesday night as an
upper trough lifts into SE Canada. Moisture will be shallow as
well by this time, so will maintain a dry forecast through the
period. High pressure will then remain in place through the
upcoming weekend with dry weather for the most part. Can`t rule
out a shower or two Friday night into Saturday in association
with another cold front. Global models disagree regarding the
timing and strength of this front, but at least seem to agree on
a relatively weakly amplified flow aloft leading to a
progressive frontal passage.
Temperatures remain near to just above normal for early autumn.
Afternoon highs generally range from the upper 60s to mid 70s,
with morning lows into the 40s and 50s. The national blend was
followed for this update, with Friday being the warmest of the 5
days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will slowly build in from the north as low
pressure passes to our south through the TAF period.
Mainly VFR at all terminals outside of NYC. MVFR for the NYC
terminals, improving to VFR tonight, with potential to lower
again to MVFR Monday morning for a few hours. Thereafter, VFR is
expected at all terminals through much of Monday night. Potential
for MVFR to return late Monday night.
A generally E flow will continue through the TAF period. NE
tonight, becoming more E to maybe even SE Monday, then back to
NE Monday night. Mainly under 10 kts, but could reach 10 kts or
a few kt higher this afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence in cig forecast tonight. Could fluctuate between
MVFR and VFR. Highest confidence in MVFR is at EWR.
Even with any improvement to VFR tonight, brief lowering to
MVFR again is possible for a few hours Monday morning. VFR
likely thereafter.
MVFR cigs could return at the very end of the TAF period.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: Mainly VFR. Potential for MVFR.
Tuesday: MVFR to VFR.
Tuesday night: MVFR possible in slight chance of showers.
Wednesday through Friday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas remain below SCA levels on all waters through
Monday night. A developing low pressure off the Mid Atlantic
coast on Tuesday will help ocean seas build to 5-6ft and bring
the next period of SCA conditions.
Elevated seas then persist thru Wednesday on the ocean with
lingering ESE swell. Seas are forecast to lower below 5 ft by
the end of Wednesday night, and sub SCA conditions are then
expected on all coastal waters thereafter.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS