745
FXUS61 KOKX 011353
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
953 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in place over the Northeast today as an area
of low pressure passes off the Mid Atlantic coast. A weak cold front
from the west on Wednesday, before high pressure reestablishes over
the region on Thursday and remains in control through Friday. A
weak cold front will pass through the area sometime on Saturday
followed by high pressure to end the weekend. A stronger cold
front looks to move through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast remains on track this morning. 12Z KOKX sounding is
showing a decent layer of dry air aloft helping to keep the
cloud cover broken to partly cloudy across the area. This will
continue through the day, with any shower activity remaining
well to the west.
October opens on a relatively quiet note, offering dry conditions
and temperatures near normal for early autumn. The upper low that
has been drifting east over the Mid Atlantic opens into a trough as
it slides offshore today. Meanwhile, strong ridging and surface high
pressure remain over the Northeast, with the local region in between
these features.
Surface low pressure is able to develop off the Carolina coast
into this evening, though placement looks too far south for any
local impacts, with the exception of continued cloud cover.
Temperatures near 70 this afternoon fall back into the 50s
tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave and weakening cold front approach on Wednesday, with
high pressure remaining in place ahead of this. The shortwave
lifts north into Wednesday night as the front washes out to the
west. With limited forcing, not anticipating any impacts other
than an increase in low level cloud cover Wednesday evening.
Perhaps a rogue shower can survive into the far interior of the
LoHud Valley, but even this look isolated at best.
Otherwise, look for mostly cloudy to overcast skies Wednesday,
beginning to clear out Thursday with high pressure building over the
region. Ridging builds over the Eastern US ahead of a broad
trough off to the north and west. With deep S/SW flow, will
start to see a warming trend into late week. Highs in the upper
60s on Wednesday bump into the low to mid 70s for most by
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure centered offshore will remain in control through
Friday. Aloft, heights start to fall late in the day as a shortwave
trough approaches. The warming trend will continue with a S/SW flow
through the column. Blended in some of the NBM 90th percentile with
the NBM deterministic for highs Friday. This gives widespread mid to
upper 70s for most, low 70s across eastern LI.
A cold front associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough
will move through sometime early on Saturday. This feature has
trended weaker from 24 hours ago and there is better overall
agreement across the global models. This solutions will lead to some
light rain showers if anything on Saturday. Capped at slight chance
PoPs.
High pressure will build in again to end the weekend. A stronger
upper level trough and cold front look to move through sometime
early next week. Although still far out for specifics, this has
potential to result in gusty winds and moderate to locally heavy
rain. No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains anchored along the New England coast through
tonight, while weak low pressure tracks east off the Mid Atlantic
coast.
Confidence is decreasing for MVFR for KBDR and KISP to finish
out this morning, however, E/NE winds off of LI Sound have
brought MVFR cigs around 1500 ft into KLGA and KTEB. Guidance
generally wants to go VFR with the exception of the NAM. Plan
to hold on for at least another couple of hours (thru 16Z).
Trend should at least be for the ceiling to gradually lift. IFR
will likely be confined to KGON. All terminals are forecast to
improve to VFR by late morning or early afternoon.
Cigs then lower to MVFR again from east to west late this
evening and overnight and remain there until at least Wednesday
morning. KSWF likely lowers to IFR Wednesday morning.
Winds remain generally easterly through much of the TAF period near
5-10 kts. A few gusts of 15-20 kt are possible this afternoon,
mainly along the coast.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Chance of brief MVFR at KEWR and KJFK this morning.
MVFR may persist at KLGA by 1-2 hours longer than currently
forecast. Low confidence.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday through Friday: MVFR Wednesday morning and then mainly
VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers with MVFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Ocean seas build to around 5 ft today, and linger into at least
the first half of Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect on the ocean zones through 10Z Wed, but an extension
further into the day is possible.
Thereafter, sub SCA conditions are likely on all waters through
the weekend. There is potential for 25+ knot gusts and 5+ ft
seas with a cold frontal passage early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be increasing with the approach of a new
moon Wednesday afternoon. This combined with a persistent easterly
wind may push levels right up to minor flooding benchmarks for the
Wednesday morning high tide cycle. A statement may eventually be
needed to address this for the south shore back bays of Nassau and
Queens.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
Have taken MVFR cigs out of the prevailing group at the NYC
terminals and placed in a TEMPO as confidence in MVFR this
morning has decreased.
Start and end time of MVFR cigs may be off an hour or two from
the TEMPO group.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/JT
NEAR TERM...DBR/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DW/JT
MARINE...DR/JT
HYDROLOGY...DR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...