686
FXUS61 KOKX 021134
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
734 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls just to the west today before weakening
Wednesday night. High pressure gets re-established Thursday into the
first half of Friday as it shifts offshore. A weak cold front
passes through the area early Saturday, followed by high pressure
to end the weekend. Another cold front looks to move through
early next week, before high pressure returns behind it.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No changes with this update with little adjustments in the
hourly forecast database. Clouds pivot through this morning as the
region will be sandwiched in- between high pressure centered to
the northeast, low pressure offshore to the south, and a cold
front to our west. The cold front will slowly push east today,
but will have difficulty progressing east with high pressure
doing a good job of hanging in across Maine and ridging south
along the New England coast. A fast moving trough across the
Eastern Lakes deamplifies with a tightening jet. This will help
shear out the approaching mid and upper level energy going into
Wednesday night.
BUFKIT soundings still indicate some pockets of higher RH in the mid
and lower levels. Thus clouds will linger for portions of the day,
especially further west further away from the influence of high
pressure. Overall partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail for
today with a light ENE wind. Temperatures should manage to average a
few degrees below average overall for the start of October as
temperatures reach primarily the middle and upper 60s.
Upper level ridging immediately follows to late at night and into
early Thursday morning. Temperatures should average near seasonal
norms tonight, with mainly 50s region wide, except near 60 in the
NYC metro. Thus there is a chance that temperatures in the more
rural areas could get a few degrees cooler than advertised. The
winds will be relatively light, especially late. The main question
pertains to the formation of patchy fog. Have included in the
forecast, but confidence is not the highest. This will depend on the
degree of cloud cover. Enough breaks in the cloud cover should take
place to allow for the formation of some patchy fog. The cold front
off to the west will weaken and undergo frontolysis into Thursday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With a fair amount of ridging in the mid and upper levels; look for
less in the way of clouds overall, especially towards midday.
Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer due to more in the way
of sunshine for the afternoon, despite a light onshore SE wind. Many
places should manage to reach the lower and middle 70s as the ridge
axis builds across the region. This will aide in high pressure
getting re-established along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic coast.
For Thursday night look for high pressure to be over the area. This
should help in getting some sinking motion on the synoptic scale.
This would promote more pockets of clear to partly cloudy skies.
This would lead to patchy fog, especially in the more rural locations
late at night. Night time minimums should range from the middle 50s
to the lower 60s closer to the coast and the NYC metro.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains in control to start Friday, but shifts
east with the ridging ahead of a weak trough from the Great Lakes.
An associated cold front attempts to push through early Saturday,
but strongest forcing is focused farther north. Based on 00Z global
guidance though, did nudge PoPs up a bit into low chance (~25%)
across parts of the interior overnight into Saturday, with a slight
chance of showers elsewhere.
Following the frontal passage, high pressure settles back in for
most of the weekend and heights climb as ridging builds once again,
leading to mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures, especially on
Saturday, when highs are progged in the 70s.
By early next week, a trough digs into the Upper Great Lakes, and a
frontal system ahead of it begins to approach. Timing looks a bit
faster than previous forecast, with the potential for a period of
rain showers ahead of the main cold front either late Sunday night
or Monday. Thereafter, a general drying trend into midweek as high
pressure returns from the west. National blend was largely followed
for this forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure shifts farther north and east of the region today
as a cold front approaches from the west.
Mainly VFR but patchy MVFR cigs possible this morning. Low
stratus expected to scatter out by late morning with a return to
VFR this afternoon and thru the remainder of the forecast.
A general E/NE flow 5 to 10 kt this morning veers more E/SE this
afternoon, lightening tonight, before becoming more southerly
Thursday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR cigs possible this morning, improvement to VFR could be off
by an hour or two.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers with MVFR possible.
Sunday: Chance of showers at night with MVFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes with respect to the small craft that is currently in
effect. Maintaining the thinking that seas will be more marginal
further east, but close enough to keep all ocean zones at small
craft until 19z with a 10 to 11 sec E swell at times. Otherwise,
seas settle in closer to 4 ft tonight into Thursday, and closer
to 3 ft Thursday night into Friday. Sub SCA conditions are
likely on all waters Friday through much of the weekend. Ocean
seas potentially build to 5 ft or greater Sunday night or Monday
as a frontal system moves through.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected with no big rain threats
throughout the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A couple of gauges for the Nassau south shore bays could get very
close to minor coastal flood benchmarks for this morning`s high tide
cycle. Bias correction applied from the previous two high tide
cycles suggest more of a likelihood of just falling short, so held
off on any statements / advisories. Going forward, water levels
are expected to decrease after this morning`s high tide.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE/DR
HYDROLOGY...JE/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...