026
FXUS61 KOKX 021440
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1040 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front stalls to the west of the area and weakens through
tonight. High pressure gets re-established Thursday into the
first half of Friday as it shifts offshore. A weak cold front
passes through the area early Saturday, followed by high
pressure to end the weekend. Another cold front looks to move
through early next week, before high pressure returns behind it.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast on track as the region will be sandwiched in- between
high pressure centered to the northeast, low pressure offshore
to the south, and a cold front to our west. The cold front will
slowly push east today, but will have difficulty progressing
east with high pressure nosing down along the New England
coast. A fast moving trough across the Eastern Lakes deamplifies
with a tightening jet. This will help shear out the approaching
mid and upper level energy going into tonight.

Mid deck will gradually overspread the area from w to e ahead
of shearing shortwave and approaching cold front. Ahead of that
instability CU development in response to onshore flow off
relatively warmer and moist waters, under subsidence inversion.
Overall partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail for today
with a light ENE wind. Temperatures should manage to average a
few degrees below average overall for the start of October as
temperatures reach primarily the middle and upper 60s. A bit
gusty along the coast, particularly LI sound with funneling of
NE winds down the sound.

Upper level ridging immediately follows late at night and into
early Thursday morning. Temperatures should average near
seasonal norms tonight, with mainly 50s region wide, except near
60 in the NYC metro. Thus there is a chance that temperatures
in the more rural areas could get a few degrees cooler than
advertised. The winds will be relatively light, especially late.
The main question pertains to the formation of patchy fog. Have
included in the forecast, but confidence is not the highest.
This will depend on the degree of cloud cover. Enough breaks in
the cloud cover should take place to allow for the formation of
some patchy fog. The cold front off to the west will weaken and
undergo frontolysis into Thursday morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With a fair amount of ridging in the mid and upper levels; look for
less in the way of clouds overall, especially towards midday.
Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer due to more in the way
of sunshine for the afternoon, despite a light onshore SE wind. Many
places should manage to reach the lower and middle 70s as the ridge
axis builds across the region. This will aide in high pressure
getting re-established along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic coast.

For Thursday night look for high pressure to be over the area. This
should help in getting some sinking motion on the synoptic scale.
This would promote more pockets of clear to partly cloudy skies.
This would lead to patchy fog, especially in the more rural locations
late at night. Night time minimums should range from the middle 50s
to the lower 60s closer to the coast and the NYC metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains in control to start Friday, but shifts
east with the ridging ahead of a weak trough from the Great Lakes.
An associated cold front attempts to push through early Saturday,
but strongest forcing is focused farther north. Based on 00Z global
guidance though, did nudge PoPs up a bit into low chance (~25%)
across parts of the interior overnight into Saturday, with a slight
chance of showers elsewhere.

Following the frontal passage, high pressure settles back in for
most of the weekend and heights climb as ridging builds once again,
leading to mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures, especially on
Saturday, when highs are progged in the 70s.

By early next week, a trough digs into the Upper Great Lakes, and a
frontal system ahead of it begins to approach. Timing looks a bit
faster than previous forecast, with the potential for a period of
rain showers ahead of the main cold front either late Sunday night
or Monday. Thereafter, a general drying trend into midweek as high
pressure returns from the west. National blend was largely followed
for this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure shifts farther north and east of the region today
as a cold front approaches from the west.

Mainly VFR, however TEMPO MVFR cigs still possible for a few
terminals this morning.

A general E/NE flow around 10 kt this morning veers more E/SE
this afternoon, lightening tonight, before becoming more
southerly Thursday.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

TEMPO MVFR cigs might not occur at KEWR, but may occur at KTEB
and KJFK. Higher confidence in TEMPO MVFR cigs at KLGA this
morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday through Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers with MVFR possible.

Sunday: Chance of showers at night with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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No changes with respect to the small craft that is currently in
effect. Based on buoys to the east of the local waters and
latest wave guidance, have maintained SCA for 4 to 5 ft seas
(mainly in e swell) through 00Z. Seas will be more marginal
further east this aft/eve, but close enough to keep all ocean
zones at small craft until 00z Thu with a 10 to 11 sec E swell
at times.

Otherwise, seas settle in closer to 3-4 ft tonight into
Thursday, and closer to 3 ft Thursday night into Friday. Sub SCA
conditions are likely on all waters Friday through much of the
weekend. Ocean seas potentially build to 5 ft or greater Sunday
night or Monday as a frontal system moves through.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected with no big rain threats
throughout the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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After localized minor flood thresholds being reached this
morning along southern of W LI, water levels are expected to
decrease for subsequent tidal cycles.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...JE/NV
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE/DR/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...