858
FXUS61 KOKX 021948
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
348 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front stalls to the west of the area and weakens through
tonight. High pressure remains in control through Friday as it
shifts offshore. A series of cold fronts will then pass through
the area, the first early Saturday, and then the second on
Monday. In between, high pressure will prevail. A large area of
high pressure over the mid section of the country will build
east toward the Mid Atlantic states Tuesday into Wednesday,
while low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes departs slowly to
the northeast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Shortwave upper ridging builds into the area tonight, while
surface high pressure remains steadfast down the NE US coast and
weak cold front to the west dissipates.
Perhaps an isolated shower or sprinkle across far western area
this evening, otherwise mid deck slides east overnight, but
strato-cu may be a bit more persistent across western areas.
With light winds under high pressure, better chance for
radiational cooling (and patchy fog) across outlying areas of
LI/CT (low into the upper 40s/lower 50s), otherwise lows
generally in the 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Shortwave upper ridging continues to nose into the area Thu,
sliding east Thu Night into Friday. Meanwhile a northern stream
shortwave works into the eastern Great Lakes by late Friday.
At the surface, high pressure along the NE US coast Thu AM, slowly
slides offshore through Friday, allowing a cold front to approach
Friday Night.
Return flow on Thursday, strengthening into Friday, will have a
gradually warmer and moister airmass advecting into the region.
Morning stratus across western areas Thu AM, should give way to
sct- bkn diurnal instability CU under strong subsidence
inversion Thu and Fri to the north of developing sea breezes.
Otherwise, dry conditions under layered ridging, with temps near
seasonable on Thu and a few degrees above on Friday under
moderating airmass.
Better chance of radiational cooling Thu Night with absence of mid-
cloud cover. With moderated humidity level this will likely lead to
scattered areas of fog development, especially valley,
riverine, outlying coastal areas late at night. Lows around 50s
across far outlying areas, to the upper 50s/lower 60s for coast
and NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A fast flow across the norther tier of the country will feature two
short wave troughs that will send cold fronts through the area. The
first of which will be early on Saturday, with a second late Sunday
night into Monday. The second will be followed by a much cooler shot
of air as the trough deepens across eastern Canada and the Northeast
early next week. Surface high pressure prevails in between with the
weekend being mainly dry. Coverage of showers with the first cold
front Saturday morning is expected to be limited in coverage with
rainfall amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch. While there
will be a bit more upper support for the second frontal system on
Monday, still not much rainfall expected due to the fast progression
of the system and limited instability and moisture.
As for temperatures, the warmest day will be on Saturday with
offshore northerly flow behind the first, weaker cold front.
Highs on Saturday look to be about 5 degrees above normal. Sunday
and Monday will be closer to normal, but then a cool down Monday
night into Wednesday with highs and lows about 5 degrees below
normal. Many locations by Wednesday morning will be in the 40s, with
a even a few in the upper 30s well inland.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure remains in control through the TAF period.
Mainly VFR. Except TEMPO MVFR cigs likely for KSWF this afternoon
into early evening.
E/SE winds this afternoon, becoming lighter tonight and backing
more easterly or becoming light and variable. SE sea breezes
anticipated for Thursday starting late morning to early
afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Chance that the sea breeze dissipates before reaching KLGA with
winds remaining NE into this evening. Also a chance that the sea
breeze shift to ESE at KLGA is delayed until 22-23z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Morning MVFR and -shra possible.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: MVFR and -shra possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Light winds through the remainder of he week under high
pressure. Marginal SCA easterly swells from offshore low
gradually subside below 5 ft through midnight, otherwise swells
settle in closer to 3-4 ft into Thursday, and closer to 3 ft
Thursday night into Friday.
Sub-SCA conditions are likely on all waters for much of the weekend.
Ocean seas potentially build to 5 ft or greater Sunday night or
Monday due to a building easterly swell.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic issues are expected through the forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels are expected to remain below minor flood thresholds
through this work week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...