845
FXUS61 KOKX 030009
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
809 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls to the west of the area and weakens through
tonight. High pressure remains in control through Friday as it
shifts offshore. A series of cold fronts will then pass through
the area, the first early Saturday, and then the second on
Monday. In between, high pressure will prevail. A large area of
high pressure over the mid section of the country will build
east toward the Mid Atlantic states Tuesday into Wednesday,
while low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes departs slowly to
the northeast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Main adjustment with this update was to the cloud cover as
eastern LI and SE CT remain mostly clear. This has allowed
temperatures to radiate a bit better across these locations, but
to the contrary for locations under the cloud cover. Suspect as
these clouds work east, some areas will level off, or even come
back up a bit.
Otherwise, shortwave upper ridging builds into the area
tonight, while surface high pressure remains steadfast down the
NE US coast and weak cold front to the west dissipates.
A mid level deck slides east overnight, but strato-cu may be a
bit more persistent across western areas. With light winds under
high pressure, better chance for radiational cooling (and
patchy fog) across outlying areas of LI/CT (low into the upper
40s/lower 50s), otherwise lows generally in the 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shortwave upper ridging continues to nose into the area Thu,
sliding east Thu Night into Friday. Meanwhile a northern stream
shortwave works into the eastern Great Lakes by late Friday.
At the surface, high pressure along the NE US coast Thu AM, slowly
slides offshore through Friday, allowing a cold front to approach
Friday Night.
Return flow on Thursday, strengthening into Friday, will have a
gradually warmer and moister airmass advecting into the region.
Morning stratus across western areas Thu AM, should give way to
sct- bkn diurnal instability CU under strong subsidence
inversion Thu and Fri to the north of developing sea breezes.
Otherwise, dry conditions under layered ridging, with temps near
seasonable on Thu and a few degrees above on Friday under
moderating airmass.
Better chance of radiational cooling Thu Night with absence of mid-
cloud cover. With moderated humidity level this will likely lead to
scattered areas of fog development, especially valley,
riverine, outlying coastal areas late at night. Lows around 50s
across far outlying areas, to the upper 50s/lower 60s for coast
and NYC metro.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A fast flow across the norther tier of the country will feature two
short wave troughs that will send cold fronts through the area. The
first of which will be early on Saturday, with a second late Sunday
night into Monday. The second will be followed by a much cooler shot
of air as the trough deepens across eastern Canada and the Northeast
early next week. Surface high pressure prevails in between with the
weekend being mainly dry. Coverage of showers with the first cold
front Saturday morning is expected to be limited in coverage with
rainfall amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch. While there
will be a bit more upper support for the second frontal system on
Monday, still not much rainfall expected due to the fast progression
of the system and limited instability and moisture.
As for temperatures, the warmest day will be on Saturday with
offshore northerly flow behind the first, weaker cold front.
Highs on Saturday look to be about 5 degrees above normal. Sunday
and Monday will be closer to normal, but then a cool down Monday
night into Wednesday with highs and lows about 5 degrees below
normal. Many locations by Wednesday morning will be in the 40s, with
a even a few in the upper 30s well inland.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front west of the area weakens tonight. High pressure will
gradually return to the area going into Thursday.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is
forecast to be some patchy fog overnight for CT terminals and
interior terminals. Have a TEMPO group to indicate this 08-12Z
Thursday with visibilities dropping to MVFR. KGON has more fog
in the TAF along with a possibility of IFR visibilities late
tonight into early Thursday morning. Also, while not in TAFs,
there is a chance of MVFR stratus for KGON and KSWF late tonight
into early Thursday morning.
Winds remain mainly E-SE during the TAF period near 5-10 kts.
Winds will be near 5 kts with more variable direction late
tonight into early Thursday morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance of MVFR late tonight into early Thursday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Morning MVFR and -shra possible.
Sunday: VFR day into evening. MVFR possible with low probability
of showers late Sunday night.
Monday: MVFR and -shra possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Light winds through the remainder of the week under high
pressure. Marginal SCA easterly swells from offshore low
gradually subside below 5 ft through midnight, otherwise swells
settle in closer to 3-4 ft into Thursday, and closer to 3 ft
Thursday night into Friday.
Sub-SCA conditions are likely on all waters for much of the weekend.
Ocean seas potentially build to 5 ft or greater Sunday night or
Monday due to a building easterly swell.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are expected to remain below minor flood thresholds
through this work week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//