252
FXUS61 KOKX 030453
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1253 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls to the west of the area and weakens through
tonight. High pressure remains in control through Friday as it
shifts offshore. A series of cold fronts will then pass through
the area, the first early Saturday, and then the second on
Monday. In between, high pressure will prevail. A large area of
high pressure over the mid section of the country will build
east toward the Mid Atlantic states Tuesday into Wednesday,
while low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes departs slowly to
the northeast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No meaningful adjustments with the hourly forecast database with
this update. Temperatures for the eastern half of the forecast
region are coming in lower where there have been less clouds,
with more radiational cooling. This is also where there could
be some patchy fog development into early Thursday morning with
temperatures cooling close to the dewpoint. A mid level deck
continues to slide east overnight, with strato- cu a bit more
persistent across western areas. With light winds under high
pressure, better chance for radiational cooling (and patchy fog)
across outlying areas of LI/CT as forecast lows should range
from the upper 40s to lower 50s for the eastern half of the
region, with a range of lower 50s to near 60 for the western
half of the region.
Otherwise, shortwave upper ridging builds into the area
overnight, while surface high pressure remains steadfast down
the NE US coast and weak cold front to the west dissipates.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Shortwave upper ridging continues to nose into the area Thu,
sliding east Thu night into Friday. Meanwhile a northern stream
shortwave works into the eastern Great Lakes by late Friday.
At the surface, high pressure along the NE US coast Thu AM, slowly
slides offshore through Friday, allowing a cold front to approach
Friday Night.
Return flow on Thursday, strengthening into Friday, will have a
gradually warmer and moister airmass advecting into the region.
Morning stratus across western areas Thu AM, should give way to
sct- bkn diurnal instability CU under strong subsidence
inversion Thu and Fri to the north of developing sea breezes.
Otherwise, dry conditions under layered ridging, with temps near
seasonable on Thu and a few degrees above on Friday under
moderating airmass.
Better chance of radiational cooling Thu Night with absence of mid-
cloud cover. With moderated humidity level this will likely lead to
scattered areas of fog development, especially valley,
riverine, outlying coastal areas late at night. Lows around 50s
across far outlying areas, to the upper 50s/lower 60s for coast
and NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A fast flow across the norther tier of the country will feature two
short wave troughs that will send cold fronts through the area. The
first of which will be early on Saturday, with a second late Sunday
night into Monday. The second will be followed by a much cooler shot
of air as the trough deepens across eastern Canada and the Northeast
early next week. Surface high pressure prevails in between with the
weekend being mainly dry. Coverage of showers with the first cold
front Saturday morning is expected to be limited in coverage with
rainfall amounts generally less than a tenth of an inch. While there
will be a bit more upper support for the second frontal system on
Monday, still not much rainfall expected due to the fast progression
of the system and limited instability and moisture.
As for temperatures, the warmest day will be on Saturday with
offshore northerly flow behind the first, weaker cold front.
Highs on Saturday look to be about 5 degrees above normal. Sunday
and Monday will be closer to normal, but then a cool down Monday
night into Wednesday with highs and lows about 5 degrees below
normal. Many locations by Wednesday morning will be in the 40s, with
a even a few in the upper 30s well inland.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front west of the area weakens tonight. High pressure will
gradually return to the area going into Thursday.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Localized MVFR stratus for KSWF for much of tonight into early
Thursday morning. There is forecast to be some patchy fog
overnight for CT terminals. Have a TEMPO group to indicate this
08-12Z Thursday with visibilities dropping to MVFR. KGON has
more fog in the TAF along with a possibility of IFR visibilities
late tonight into early Thursday morning.
Winds remain mainly E-SE during the TAF period near 5-10 kts.
Winds will be near 5 kts with more variable direction late
tonight into early Thursday morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance of MVFR late tonight into early Thursday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Morning MVFR and -shra possible.
Sunday: VFR day into evening. MVFR possible with low probability
of showers late Sunday night.
Monday: MVFR and -shra possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Light winds through the remainder of the week under high
pressure. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds for the overnight through Friday night. Ocean swells
settle in closer to 3-4 ft into Thursday, and closer to 3 ft
Thursday night into Friday.
Sub-SCA conditions are likely on all waters for much of the
weekend. Ocean seas potentially build to 5 ft or greater Sunday
night or Monday due to a building easterly swell.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW