298
FXUS61 KOKX 031000
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
600 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will be in place through tonight, and then push
slowly offshore Friday. A weak cold front pushes through late Friday
night into early Saturday. High pressure briefly returns Saturday
into Saturday night, moving offshore Sunday. Another, stronger
cold front passes through Sunday night into Monday morning. Cool
high pressure then builds in from the northern Plains through
the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
There will be a fair amount of ridging in the mid and upper levels
with subsequent height rises. This will aid in frontolysis, the
weakening and dissolving of a cold front across western portions of
the CWA. After a good amount of clouds in most place this
morning, look for clouds to gradually give way to sunshine,
especially towards midday and into the afternoon. Temperatures
should be a few degrees warmer due to more in the way of
sunshine for the afternoon, despite a light onshore SE wind.
Many places should manage to reach the lower and middle 70s as
the ridge axis builds across the region. This will aide in high
pressure getting re- established along the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic coast.
For tonight look for weak high pressure to be over the area. This
should help in getting some sinking motion on the synoptic scale.
This would promote some pockets of clear to partly cloudy skies.
This would lead to patchy fog where there is little to no cloud
cover as temps get close to the dew point, especially in the more
rural locations late at night. Night time minimums should range from
the middle 50s to the lower 60s closer to the coast and the NYC
metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
During Friday the ridge axis gets further east and offshore. A
shortwave in semi-zonal flow gets into the eastern Great Lakes. This
would promote more of a southerly flow and slightly higher dew
points and humidity into the region. More clouds will move across
the region with a mid deck being more prevalent later in the day.
Temperatures will average above normal for early October with mainly
lower and middle 70s region wide. A cold front will move across the
Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians towards Friday evening. Skies
will become mostly cloudy Friday night with a slight chance of
showers across a good portion of the CWA, with minimal shower
chances across far eastern sections. Temperatures should average a
few degrees above normal with a more humid flow just preceding the
cold front and some cloud cover expected. The cold front is expected
to be a weak one, with only some showers scattered along and just
ahead of the boundary as indicated by high res NWP reflectivity
progs. It seems prudent to include slight chance of showers moving
from west to east throughout the night into early Saturday morning.
With much of the forcing going north of the CWA, the expectation in
terms of QPF is only for a few hundredths of an inch.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A rather quick flow will dominate across the northern tier Saturday
into the middle of next week. This flow will bring two cold fronts
across the region as Friday night into Saturday, and Sunday night
into Monday, as the associated low centers track across southern
Canada. The first cold front will be weak, and with little upper
support, so will maintain the slight chance probabilities. The
second front will be stronger, and with a little better upper energy
and forcing will have a period of likely probabilities across a
portion of the northern zones late Sunday night. And with little to
no CAPE or instability will not mention thunder. The airmass ahead
of the second cold front will be rather warm, with above normal
temperatures, and leaned toward the 75th and 90th percentiles for
highs Saturday through Monday. These were just a couple of degrees
higher than the NBM temperatures.
A much cooler airmass will move in behind the second cold front as
gusty northerly winds develop. This will bring in the cooler air of
the Autumn with temperatures several degrees below normal Monday
night into the middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains over the area through Thursday night.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is
a low chance of MVFR fog at KGON before morning.
Light and variable to calm winds overnight become S this morning,
less than 10kt, and then light and variable this evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected through this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Late tonight through Saturday: Mainly VFR. A chance of MVFR to IFR
toward Friday morning at KSWF, KHPN, and KTEB. A slight chance of
showers with MVFR late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Sunday through Monday: VFR Sunday, then a chance of MVFR with a
chance of showers Sunday night into Monday morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Mainly 4 ft seas on the ocean waters through today, with seas
subsiding closer to 3 ft late tonight and on Friday. The winds will
be relatively light with high pressure nearby resulting in a weak
pressure gradient. Winds and seas remain below SCA Saturday
through Sunday. With an increasing southerly flow ahead of an
approaching cold front Sunday night ocean seas build to 5 to 6
feet, and remain into Monday. With the winds shifting to the
west and northwest Monday ocean seas will subside Monday night,
falling below SCA levels Tuesday morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET