532
FXUS61 KOKX 031402
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1002 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will be in place through tonight, and then
push slowly offshore Friday. A weak cold front pushes through
late Friday night into early Saturday. High pressure briefly
returns Saturday into Saturday night, moving offshore Sunday.
Another, stronger cold front passes through Sunday night into
Monday morning. Cool high pressure then builds in from the
northern Plains through the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track with shortwave mid/upper ridging and a
weakening and dissolving of a cold front across western portions
of the CWA.
Morning stratus, particularly western areas, will give way to
sct (locally bkn) diurnal instability cu towards midday and
into the afternoon. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer
due to more in the way of sunshine for the afternoon, despite a
light onshore SE wind. Many places should manage to reach the
lower and middle 70s as the ridge axis builds across the region.
This will aide in high pressure getting re- established along
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic coast.
For tonight look for weak high pressure to be over the area.
This should help in getting some sinking motion on the synoptic
scale. This would promote some pockets of clear to partly cloudy
skies. This would lead to patchy fog where there is little to
no cloud cover as temps get close to the dew point, especially
in the more rural locations late at night. Night time minimums
should range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s closer to the
coast and the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
During Friday the ridge axis gets further east and offshore. A
shortwave in semi-zonal flow gets into the eastern Great Lakes.
This would promote more of a southerly flow and slightly higher
dew points and humidity into the region. More clouds will move
across the region with a mid deck being more prevalent later in
the day. Temperatures will average above normal for early
October with mainly lower and middle 70s region wide. A cold
front will move across the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians
towards Friday evening. Skies will become mostly cloudy Friday
night with a slight chance of showers across a good portion of
the CWA, with minimal shower chances across far eastern
sections. Temperatures should average a few degrees above normal
with a more humid flow just preceding the cold front and some
cloud cover expected. The cold front is expected to be a weak
one, with only some showers scattered along and just ahead of
the boundary as indicated by high res NWP reflectivity progs. It
seems prudent to include slight chance of showers moving from
west to east throughout the night into early Saturday morning.
With much of the forcing going north of the CWA, the expectation
in terms of QPF is only for a few hundredths of an inch.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A rather quick flow will dominate across the northern tier
Saturday into the middle of next week. This flow will bring two
cold fronts across the region as Friday night into Saturday, and
Sunday night into Monday, as the associated low centers track
across southern Canada. The first cold front will be weak, and
with little upper support, so will maintain the slight chance
probabilities. The second front will be stronger, and with a
little better upper energy and forcing will have a period of
likely probabilities across a portion of the northern zones late
Sunday night. And with little to no CAPE or instability will
not mention thunder. The airmass ahead of the second cold front
will be rather warm, with above normal temperatures, and leaned
toward the 75th and 90th percentiles for highs Saturday through
Monday. These were just a couple of degrees higher than the NBM
temperatures.
A much cooler airmass will move in behind the second cold front
as gusty northerly winds develop. This will bring in the cooler
air of the Autumn with temperatures several degrees below
normal Monday night into the middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the area through tonight.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Patchy MVFR ceilings around 3000 ft possible at KSWF until early
afternoon. There is a low chance of MVFR ceilings and patchy
fog late tonight, mainly KSWF and possibly KHPN.
S winds less than 10kt, and then light and variable this
evening into tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday through Saturday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers
with MVFR late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Sunday through Monday: VFR Sunday, then a chance of MVFR with a
chance of showers Sunday night into Monday morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mainly 4 ft seas on the ocean waters through today, with seas
subsiding closer to 3 ft late tonight and on Friday. The winds will
be relatively light with high pressure nearby resulting in a weak
pressure gradient. Winds and seas remain below SCA Saturday
through Sunday.
With long period swells from Hurricane Kirk (see NHC for
forecast details) reaching the area, ocean seas build to 5 to 6
feet, and remain into Monday. Swells wills gradually subside
Mon Night into Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/NV
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET