690
FXUS61 KOKX 040755
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
355 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure pushes slowly offshore today as a weak cold front
pushes through tonight. High pressure follows for the weekend.
Another, stronger, cold front passes through Sunday night into
Monday. Cool high pressure then builds in from the northern Plains
through the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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For today the ridge axis gets further east and offshore. More in the
way of mid and upper level clouds will work in from the south and
west in advance of a shortwave in semi-zonal flow moving across the
Great Lakes region this afternoon into this evening. This will
promote a light southerly flow and slightly higher dew points and
humidity into the region. Temperatures will average above normal for
early October with mainly lower and middle 70s region wide. The cold
front sweeps across the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians
towards evening. A mid deck of clouds will be more prevalent later
in the day, with skies becoming mostly cloudy tonight with a chance
to slight chance of showers across the CWA, with minimal shower
chances across far southern and southeastern sections. Temperatures
should average a few degrees above normal with a more humid flow
just preceding the cold front, despite more in the way of clouds.
The cold front is expected to be a weak one, with only some showers
scattered along and just ahead of the boundary as indicated by high
res NWP reflectivity progs. Showers will be moving from west to east
throughout the night into early Saturday morning. With much of the
forcing going north of the CWA. Therefore, with regard to QPF the
expectation is only for a few hundredths to up to a tenth of an inch.
Much of any light shower activity should get east of the twin forks
of LI and E CT by mid morning on Saturday. Lows tonight will be
primarily in the upper half of the 50s to the lower half of the 60s
due to cloud cover and somewhat elevated dew points on a very light
S to SW synoptic flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Some mid and upper level clouds will linger for a portion of
Saturday morning, especially across the eastern half of the area.
Otherwise, look for plenty of sunshine to develop as deep layer
ridging builds behind the 700 mb trough axis which pivots through by
late morning. Temperatures will be seasonably warm for early October
with most places getting well into the 70s. Dew points begin to fall
in the afternoon as drier air lagging behind the cold front somewhat
begins to works in on a northerly flow.
Heights build into Saturday night with primarily clear skies. With
high pressure getting overhead and a weaker pressure gradient look
for a good set up for radiational cooling in the more rural areas.
Used a MAV / MET blend to capture a wider spread in night time
minimum temperatures in outlying areas as NBM appeared too warm in
these areas. Widespread 40s are expected into early Sunday morning
for the outlying areas, with mainly 50s in the non-rural areas.
Look for more sunshine on Sunday as high pressure at the surface
begins the day directly over the area, but then slides east and
offshore later in the day. Upper level clouds begin to work in
during the afternoon in advance of a warm front back to the west.
Temperatures will continue to run a touch above average with mainly
lower 70s for day time maxes.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Long term forecast remains similar to the previous forecast with
the passage of a strong cold front Sunday night into Monday. A
longwave trough will be passing mainly to the north Sunday night
with the better forcing and chances of any precipitation across the
northern areas. The upper trough closes off and lingers across
southeastern Canada into the middle of the week. During Sunday night
there will be some elevated CAPE, with little instability or
forcing, so chance for any convection will be minimal, and any
convection that may occur will be isolated.
Weak upper ridging then builds to the west for the end of next week
as surface high pressure builds slowly to the east from south
central Canada and the northern Plains. Dry weather is likely from
Monday night into the end of the week. The airmass with the high
will bring in much cooler air, and temperatures near or slightly
above normal Sunday night into Tuesday will then be as much as
around 5 degrees below normal Tuesday night through Thursday night.
A gusty northwest Tuesday, and more so Wednesday and Thursday, will
make it feel cooler with dew points in the upper 30s to lower
40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure remains over the area through the overnight and then
slides offshore Friday. A cold front approaches toward 06Z Saturday.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
There is a low chance of MVFR ceilings and patchy fog overnight,
mainly KSWF and possibly KHPN, KTEB, and KISP.
Winds light and variable becoming S 10kt or less Friday, and
generally light and variable Friday night.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Late Friday night through Saturday: A chance of showers with MVFR
late Friday night into Saturday morning. VFR Saturday afternoon.
Sunday through Monday: VFR Sunday, then a chance of MVFR with
showers Sunday night into Monday. Isolated thunder possible Sunday
night.
Tuesday: VFR. Gusty winds possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A stretch of sub small craft conditions will prevail late this
week and into the weekend despite a 9 second period ESE swell. A
SE wind on Friday becomes northerly to begin the weekend on
Saturday. Seas get closer to 4 ft on the ocean later Sunday as
long period swells increase. With long period swells from
Hurricane Kirk (see NHC for forecast details) reaching the
area, ocean seas build to 5 to 6 feet Sunday night into Monday.
Swells will gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET