985
FXUS61 KOKX 041424
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1024 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes slowly offshore today as a weak cold front
pushes through tonight. High pressure follows for the weekend.
Another, stronger, cold front passes through Sunday night into
Monday. Cool high pressure then builds in from the northern Plains
through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast remains on track. Made minor updates to better
reflect the latest temperature trends.
For today the ridge axis gets further east and offshore. Thus,
more in the way of mid and upper level clouds will work in from
the south and west in advance of a shortwave in semi- zonal flow
which moves across the Great Lakes region by this afternoon
into this evening. This will promote a light southerly flow and
slightly higher dew points and humidity into the region.
Temperatures will average above normal for early October with
mainly lower and middle 70s region wide.
The cold front sweeps across the Ohio Valley and into the
Appalachians towards evening. A mid deck of clouds will be more
prevalent later in the day, with skies becoming mostly cloudy
tonight with a chance to slight chance of showers across the
CWA, with minimal shower chances across far southern and
southeastern sections. Temperatures should average a few degrees
above normal with a more humid flow just preceding the cold
front, despite more in the way of clouds. The cold front is
expected to be a weak one, with only some showers scattered
along and just ahead of the boundary as indicated by high res
NWP reflectivity progs. Showers will be moving from west to east
throughout the night into early Saturday morning. With much of
the forcing going north of the CWA. Therefore, with regard to
QPF the expectation is only for a few hundredths to up to a
tenth of an inch. Much of any light shower activity should get
east of the twin forks of LI and E CT by mid morning on
Saturday. Lows tonight will be primarily in the upper half of
the 50s to the lower half of the 60s due to cloud cover and
somewhat elevated dew points on a very light S to SW synoptic
flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some mid and upper level clouds will linger for a portion of
Saturday morning, especially across the eastern half of the area.
Otherwise, look for plenty of sunshine to develop as deep layer
ridging builds behind the 700 mb trough axis which pivots through by
late morning. Temperatures will be seasonably warm for early October
with most places getting well into the 70s. Dew points begin to fall
in the afternoon as drier air lagging behind the cold front somewhat
begins to works in on a northerly flow.
Heights build into Saturday night with primarily clear skies. With
high pressure getting overhead and a weaker pressure gradient look
for a good set up for radiational cooling in the more rural areas.
Used a MAV / MET blend to capture a wider spread in night time
minimum temperatures in outlying areas as NBM appeared too warm in
these areas. Widespread 40s are expected into early Sunday morning
for the outlying areas, with mainly 50s in the non-rural areas.
Look for more sunshine on Sunday as high pressure at the surface
begins the day directly over the area, but then slides east and
offshore later in the day. Upper level clouds begin to work in
during the afternoon in advance of a warm front back to the west.
Temperatures will continue to run a touch above average with mainly
lower 70s for day time maxes.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Long term forecast remains similar to the previous forecast with
the passage of a strong cold front Sunday night into Monday. A
longwave trough will be passing mainly to the north Sunday night
with the better forcing and chances of any precipitation across the
northern areas. The upper trough closes off and lingers across
southeastern Canada into the middle of the week. During Sunday night
there will be some elevated CAPE, with little instability or
forcing, so chance for any convection will be minimal, and any
convection that may occur will be isolated.
Weak upper ridging then builds to the west for the end of next week
as surface high pressure builds slowly to the east from south
central Canada and the northern Plains. Dry weather is likely from
Monday night into the end of the week. The airmass with the high
will bring in much cooler air, and temperatures near or slightly
above normal Sunday night into Tuesday will then be as much as
around 5 degrees below normal Tuesday night through Thursday night.
A gusty northwest Tuesday, and more so Wednesday and Thursday, will
make it feel cooler with dew points in the upper 30s to lower
40s.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure along the northeast and mid Atlantic coast slides
offshore today and tonight. A cold front approaches late this
evening, and moves through late tonight.
VFR. There is a low chance of MVFR ceilings with showers late
tonight, and have maintained a PROB30 for the showers.
Light and variable winds this morning become S less than 10kt
by late morning, and light and variable late tonight, before
shifting to NW-N toward 12Z Saturday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. A chance of showers with MVFR possible east of
the NYC terminals until around 13Z. N/NW G14-19kt.
Sunday through Monday: VFR Sunday, then a chance of MVFR with
showers Sunday night into Monday. Isolated thunder possible
Sunday night.
Tuesday: VFR. W/NW G15-19kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A stretch of sub small craft conditions will prevail late this
week and into the weekend despite a 9 second period ESE swell. A
SE wind on Friday becomes northerly to begin the weekend on
Saturday. Seas get closer to 4 ft on the ocean later Sunday as
long period swells increase. With long period swells from
Hurricane Kirk (see NHC for forecast details) reaching the
area, ocean seas build to 5 to 6 feet Sunday night into Monday.
Swells will gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...FEB/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BR/MET
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET