683
FXUS61 KOKX 050805
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
405 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front moves across the region early this morning.
High pressure then builds into the area today and Saturday, and
moves offshore Sunday. Another cold front passes through late
Sunday night into Monday. A large Canadian high pressure system
builds across next week. The high will settle south of the area
late in the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A weak cold front was crossing the region, and will move east,
and offshore early this morning. There are few showers with the
passage of the front, with most showers passing to the north in
the region of better lift, and in the vicinity of the upper
trough.
The upper trough axis moves offshore of the northeast coast this
morning with heights then building through the afternoon with an
upper ridge moving into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Drier air moves in with the approach of high pressure, as dew
points fall into the 40s across much of the area. However,
afternoon high temperatures will average nearly 5 degrees above
normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The upper ridge amplifies and tracks slowly east tonight, then
remains over the region through Sunday. Meanwhile, the next
upper closed low, and trough will be moving through southern
Canada and the Northern Plain states tonight, and into the Great
Lakes region Sunday. Tonight and Sunday temperatures will ne
near seasonal normals.
A warm front approaches the region from the southwest Sunday
night, and tracks north of the area late Sunday night or early
Monday morning. With good frontal forcing and increasing
moisture showers will become likely across much of the region by
Monday morning. With some CAPE and instability, along with the
forcing, isolated thunder cannot be ruled out. With the warm air
moving in, Sunday night`s lows will range from 5 to near 10
degrees above normal.
The closed upper low opens Monday as the upper trough become
negatively tilted, slowing the eastward progression of the
associated cold front. Showers and isolated thunder will
continue much of the day before the cold front moves east by
Monday evening.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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An upper level trough will persist across SE Canada with troughiness
across the NE US through the middle of next week. The trough will
then lift out for the latter portion of next week.
A cold front gets well east of the area in the beginning of the
period for Monday night. In the wake of the front sprawling high
pressure will build gradually and settle nearby for the remainder
of the week leading to a prolonged stretch of dry weather as dew point
readings lower to more fall-like levels.
Temperatures will average slightly below average through the period.
Look for the coolest readings at night, especially in the more rural
and outlying areas as a dry fall like airmass builds across. This will
lead to a good deal of radiational cooling at night away from the
urban areas. Overnight minimums will be in the 40s in the outlying /
rural locations, with closer to 50 or in the lower 50s in the metro
areas. Daytime maxes will be in the 60s throughout the week, and
towards next weekend it will likely warm closer to 70, or in the lower
70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A weak cold front passes through the area for the early morning hours
around 9-10z for city terminals. High pressure then builds in from the
west through the remainder of the TAF period.
Brief MVFR conditions for a portion of the overnight for the city
terminals along and ahead of a cold front with a low possibility of
a few light showers. Brief IFR possible at KGON, otherwise VFR should
prevail for the more eastern terminals.
Light and variable winds give way to a more NW and N wind as a cold
front passes through. Northerly winds around 10 kt can be
expected towards and just after 12Z and will continue through the day.
The winds start to go east of north late Saturday evening and will be
closer to 5 kt late Saturday evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief MVFR may not occur at some terminals overnight with confidence
lower than average.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday night: VFR. Winds light N/NE.
Sunday through Monday: VFR Sunday. MVFR likely in showers late
Sunday night into Monday. Becoming VFR Monday afternoon with
showers ending from west to east. Chance of NW G15-20kt Monday
afternoon.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W-NW G15-20kt, mainly late morning
into the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions remain across the forecast waters today
through Sunday. Ocean seas are expected to build to SCA levels
Sunday night as long period swells from Hurricane Kirk (see NHC
for forecast details) move into the waters. The long period
swells and elevated ocean seas will continue into Monday night.
Small craft conditions end early Tuesday morning for the
ocean waters as seas subside closer to 4 ft. A brisk WNW flow
is expected Monday night into Tuesday, but any wind gusts are
expected to remain below small craft criteria. Therefore, sub
small craft conditions are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday.
More marginal small craft conditions are possible towards
Wednesday night with NW winds potentially gusting around 20 kt.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast
period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET