596
FXUS61 KOKX 051442
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1042 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area today, and moves offshore
Sunday. Another cold front passes through late Sunday night into
Monday. A large Canadian high pressure system builds across
next week. The high will settle south of the area late in the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front has pushed offshore this morning and winds have
shifted to the north. Any showers north of the forecast area
have dissipated, leaving the forecast dry today.
Otherwise, the upper trough axis moves offshore this morning
with heights building through the afternoon with an upper ridge
moving into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Drier air
moves in with the approach of high pressure, as dew points fall
into the 40s across much of the area. However, afternoon high
temperatures will average nearly 5 degrees above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper ridge amplifies and tracks slowly east tonight, then
remains over the region through Sunday. Meanwhile, the next
upper closed low, and trough will be moving through southern
Canada and the Northern Plain states tonight, and into the Great
Lakes region Sunday. Tonight and Sunday temperatures will ne
near seasonal normals.
A warm front approaches the region from the southwest Sunday
night, and tracks north of the area late Sunday night or early
Monday morning. With good frontal forcing and increasing
moisture showers will become likely across much of the region by
Monday morning. With some CAPE and instability, along with the
forcing, isolated thunder cannot be ruled out. With the warm air
moving in, Sunday night`s lows will range from 5 to near 10
degrees above normal.
The closed upper low opens Monday as the upper trough become
negatively tilted, slowing the eastward progression of the
associated cold front. Showers and isolated thunder will
continue much of the day before the cold front moves east by
Monday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level trough will persist across SE Canada with troughiness
across the NE US through the middle of next week. The trough will
then lift out for the latter portion of next week.
A cold front gets well east of the area in the beginning of the
period for Monday night. In the wake of the front sprawling high
pressure will build gradually and settle nearby for the remainder
of the week leading to a prolonged stretch of dry weather as dew point
readings lower to more fall-like levels.
Temperatures will average slightly below average through the period.
Look for the coolest readings at night, especially in the more rural
and outlying areas as a dry fall like airmass builds across. This will
lead to a good deal of radiational cooling at night away from the
urban areas. Overnight minimums will be in the 40s in the outlying /
rural locations, with closer to 50 or in the lower 50s in the metro
areas. Daytime maxes will be in the 60s throughout the week, and
towards next weekend it will likely warm closer to 70, or in the lower
70s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR. High pressure builds in from the west today and settles over the
area for the remainder of the TAF period.
Behind a cold front the winds will be N and settle in at around 10 kt.
There may be a few gusts of 15-20 kt but are too infrequent to
include in the TAFs. The winds start to go east of north late
this evening and will be closer to 5 kt late Saturday night.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts of just over 15 kt may occur, but should be more occasional
for today.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday through Monday: VFR Sunday. MVFR likely in showers late
Sunday night into Monday. Becoming VFR Monday afternoon with
showers ending from west to east. Chance of NW G15-20kt Monday
afternoon.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W-NW G15-20kt, mainly late morning
into the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Updated the winds across the forecast waters as winds have
shifted to the north to northwest with the passage of a cold
front.
Sub-SCA conditions remain across the forecast waters today
through Sunday. Ocean seas are expected to build to SCA levels
Sunday night as long period swells from Hurricane Kirk (see NHC
for forecast details) move into the waters. The long period
swells and elevated ocean seas will continue into Monday night.
Small craft conditions end early Tuesday morning for the ocean
waters as seas subside closer to 4 ft. A brisk WNW flow is
expected Monday night into Tuesday, but any wind gusts are
expected to remain below small craft criteria. Therefore, sub
small craft conditions are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday.
More marginal small craft conditions are possible towards
Wednesday night with NW winds potentially gusting around 20 kt.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast
period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE/BR
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET