434
FXUS61 KOKX 061754
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
154 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region moves offshore this afternoon. A
cold front passes through the area late tonight and through the
day Monday. A large Canadian high pressure system gradually
builds through mid week. The high will settle south of the area
late in the week. The high will settle south of the area late in
the week and towards the start of next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast still on track as of late this morning. Updated only
for current conditions.
Surface high pressure from southeastern Canada and through the
northeast and into the Carolinas moves offshore through today as
a warm front approaches from the southwest. This front is
associated with low pressure centered over south central Canada.
Dry and mostly clear conditions prevail today with temperatures
near seasonal levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front, associated with low pressure moving through south
central Canada and into the Hudson Bay region, will pass
through the region this evening. This will be followed by an
approaching cold front, moving through late tonight and during
much of the day Monday. The front slows its eastward progression
Monday as the upper trough become negative and the associated
low tracks slowly northward through the Hudson Bay region. With
the CAMs and global guidance in fair agreement with the timing
of the front, and showers, have refined the timing of
precipitation, delaying the onset until late tonight, and
continuing through much of the day Monday, ending across the
eastern areas by this evening. And have increased probabilities
to categorical with the front. Have kept the mention of isolated
thunder as some CAPE and instability, along with upper forcing,
remains. Dry weather returns with the passage of the cold
front, and as a large Canadian high builds toward the region
Monday night through Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
To begin the period an upper level low and its associated
trough will be anchored across SE Canada and the Northeastern
US. The upper low and its associated long wave trough will then
lift out late in the week for Friday into Saturday.
Upper level confluence will promote a rather expansive area of
high pressure which builds gradually during mid week. The high
will eventually get further south and settle nearby late in the
week into the beginning of next weekend. This will lead to a
prolonged stretch of dry weather as dew point readings lower to
more fall-like levels. The high will provide the first textbook
cP air mass of the fall season. This will lead to dry and crisp
early fall weather with cool / chilly nights and mild days.
Temperatures will average slightly below average through the
period. Look for the coolest readings at night, especially in
the more rural and outlying areas with strong radiational
cooling away from the urban areas. Overnight minimums will be in
the 40s, and possibly a few upper 30s in the outlying / rural
locations, and closer to 50 in the more metropolitan areas.
Daytime maxes will be in the 60s throughout the week, with a
warming trend getting closer to the weekend. Daytime max
temperatures should get back into the lower half of the 70s for
a good portion of the area for the start of next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure gradually moves offshore through this evening. A
warm front will then move across the area tonight, followed by
a cold frontal passage on Monday.
VFR through 06z Monday. MVFR conditions becoming likely in -SHRA
towards 09z-11z Monday for the city terminals. There is a chance
for brief IFR conditions, however confidence too low to include
in the TAFs. Also, can not rule out a rumble of thunder. Will
not include any thunder in the TAF as confidence of timing and
placement too low at this time.
SE become a bit more S tonight. The winds then switch to the W
/ NW Monday with a cold frontal passage. Winds will remain
around 10kt or less. Once the winds switch to the W-NW,
sustained winds increase to 10-14kt with gusts possible into the
lower and middle 20kt range.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind gusts may be off by an hour or two.
IFR conditions Monday morning possible, confidence too low to
include in the TAF.
Can not rule out a rumble of thunder as the front moves across
the region.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: Becoming VFR Monday afternoon with showers ending.
Winds NW 10-15g20kt Monday afternoon.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. Winds W-NW g15-20kt, mainly late
morning into the afternoon.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions remain across the forecast waters through
today. Ocean seas then build to SCA levels tonight as long
period swells from Hurricane Kirk (see NHC for forecast details)
move into the waters. These long period swells peak at 5 to 6
feet Monday, gradually subsiding below SCA late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Also, southerly winds ahead of a cold
front may briefly gust to near 25 kt on the ocean waters Monday
morning with the winds shifting to northwest with the cold front
passage. Then Monday night northwest gusts may be near SCA
levels. Early Tuesday morning winds and seas are expected to
fall below SCA levels. A SCA remains on the ocean waters late
tonight through early Tuesday morning.
Sub small craft conditions will prevail through the mid week
period on a W to NW wind. There may be times when wind gusts
approach 20 kt on the ocean Wednesday night and Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast
period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...BR/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET