889
FXUS61 KOKX 070814
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
414 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves across early today. A series of cold fronts pass
through the area thereafter through midweek. High pressure
returns thereafter and remains in control through Friday, then
a cold front passes through on Saturday. Low pressure then
approaches from the west on Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Westerlies steer a cold front through the region going into the
first half of today. Out ahead of this front, low to mid level Q
vector convergence is forecast to occur with an overall increase low
to mid level moisture as well. Instability will be weak but will be
present this morning into early afternoon.

Instability increases to nearly 300 to 500 J/kg across the eastern
half of the region for the morning into early afternoon hours.

CAMs depict shower activity decreasing upon initial entrance within
the forecast region, entering within Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ and
into NYC as well as SW CT in a general timeframe of 07-10Z. Then,
the CAMs increase the shower activity with eastward movement of the
showers from 10-16Z from west to east across the rest of the region,
covering southern CT and Long Island. With the passage across
southern CT and Long Island, CAMs also indicate strengthening of
individual showers and with the instability, there could be an
isolated embedded thunderstorm.

NW flow gets established this afternoon from west to east across the
region behind the cold front. With mid levels depicting negative
vorticity advection, vertical forcing will become less, allowing for
coverage of showers to diminish this afternoon from west to
east.

With forecast of cold air advection at 850mb this afternoon,
taking cooler blend of MET/NBM. Would expect some downslope to
make south coastline relatively warmer for most locations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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After a quasi-zonal mid level flow tonight, stronger shortwaves
approach Tuesday and Wednesday. On the larger scale, a trough
lingers across the Northeast through midweek.

The region remains in a pattern with low pressure northeast of the
region and high pressure southwest of the region through midweek.

At the surface, weak high pressure briefly returns to the region
tonight before moving farther south Tuesday with a cold front moving
in late day into evening Tuesday from the north. Another cold front
moves across from the north late Wednesday into Wednesday night from
the north.

Both of these fronts will have very limited moisture with all the
westerly flow in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere. Expecting
mainly a dry frontal passage with each of the cold fronts and
just an increase in clouds.

These fronts though will bring in cold air advection with daytime
high temperatures forecast to get progressively cooler Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Radiational cooling will set up cool nights with more and more
of the region getting into the 40s each night. Some upper 30s
are forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday night for some of the
interior and rural sections of the region. Winds are not
forecast to completely decouple and become calm but if winds
trend lower with subsequent forecasts, frost would become a
greater possibility for some interior outlying locations.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Thursday begins with an upper trough axis across the Northeast. This
will shift east and allow for deep-layered ridging across the
forecast area through the day and all the way through Friday. Dry
and mostly clear conditions through the period. Highs in the 60s
both days, and patchy frost probably develops well inland late
Thursday night as temperatures fall into the mid 30s.

A cold front passes through during Saturday, but with a lack of
moisture enhanced by a deep W to NW flow. This flow will also factor
into above-normal temperatures with downsloping and compressional
heating. Highs Saturday are currently forecast to be in the lower
and middle 70s, but this may need to be bumped higher by a few
degrees. A relatively weak low pressure system then approaches from
the west on Sunday. At least the daytime hours look to be dry across
the area. Cooler however with highs mostly 65-70.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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An approaching cold front will pass through the terminals during
the morning into early afternoon hours today.

MVFR conditions likely developing during the morning push. Showers
will be possible, but mainly east of the city terminals. VFR
conditions return by late morning for most terminals.

S to SW winds 10-15kt with some gusts up to 20 kt during the morning
push, then winds shift W to NW shortly thereafter before settling NW
this afternoon. Gusts up to 20kt this afternoon into early evening.
Winds then diminish from the NW tonight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts and changes in ceiling category may vary by 1-
2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Winds NW g15-20kt, mainly late morning into the
afternoon.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters through early Tuesday
morning. It goes until 8AM Tuesday morning. The SCA for the
ocean waters from Moriches to Montauk has been extended until
5PM Tuesday. There are forecast to be some 25 kt gusts today and
this evening but the seas are expected to remain elevated as
well, in the range of 5 to 6 ft today into tonight. Some 5 ft
seas linger on the eastern ocean Tuesday. There could be some
occasional 25 kt gusts today and this evening for some of the
non-ocean waters as well. Otherwise, expecting mainly sub-SCA
conditions for most waters Tuesday through Wednesday night.

Gusts to 25kt are possible on the ocean waters during Thursday
morning. Offshore winds otherwise keep conditions below advisory
thresholds Thursday afternoon through Friday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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5 to 7 ft surf is expected to cause scattered areas of beach
flooding and localized dune erosion during times of high tide
this morning in response to 5ft long period SE swells from
Hurricane Kirk (see NHC forecasts for forecast details).
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...