624
FXUS61 KOKX 071551
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1151 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move across into early afternoon. A series of
cold fronts will then pass through into mid week. High pressure
will follow in their wake and remain in control through Friday.
Another cold front will pass through on Saturday. Low pressure
will then approach from the west on Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Made adjustments to reflect position/timing of bands of moderate
showers still across ern Long Island/CT with the passing cold
front, which should clear far ern CT and Montauk around or
shortly after 18Z. Any tstms have moved to the east.
NW flow gets established this afternoon from west to east behind
the cold front. With forecast of cold air advection at 850mb
this afternoon, took cooler blend of 00Z MET/NBM. Expect some
downslope wind to make southern coastlines relatively warmer for
most locations.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
After a quasi-zonal mid level flow tonight, stronger shortwaves
approach Tuesday and Wednesday. On the larger scale, a trough
lingers across the Northeast through midweek.
The region remains in a pattern with low pressure northeast of the
region and high pressure southwest of the region through midweek.
At the surface, weak high pressure briefly returns to the region
tonight before moving farther south Tuesday with a cold front moving
in late day into evening Tuesday from the north. Another cold front
moves across from the north late Wednesday into Wednesday night from
the north.
Both of these fronts will have very limited moisture with all the
westerly flow in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere. Expecting
mainly a dry frontal passage with each of the cold fronts and
just an increase in clouds.
These fronts though will bring in cold air advection with daytime
high temperatures forecast to get progressively cooler Tuesday into
Wednesday.
Radiational cooling will set up cool nights with more and more
of the region getting into the 40s each night. Some upper 30s
are forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday night for some of the
interior and rural sections of the region. Winds are not
forecast to completely decouple and become calm but if winds
trend lower with subsequent forecasts, this would imply a trend
to lower temperatures, and thereby frost would become a greater
possibility for some interior outlying locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday begins with an upper trough axis across the Northeast. This
will shift east and allow for deep-layered ridging across the
forecast area through the day and all the way through Friday. Dry
and mostly clear conditions through the period. Highs in the 60s
both days, and patchy frost probably develops well inland late
Thursday night as temperatures fall into the mid 30s.
A cold front passes through during Saturday, but with a lack of
moisture enhanced by a deep W to NW flow. This flow will also factor
into above-normal temperatures with downsloping and compressional
heating. Highs Saturday are currently forecast to be in the lower
and middle 70s, but this may need to be bumped higher by a few
degrees. A relatively weak low pressure system then approaches from
the west on Sunday. At least the daytime hours look to be dry across
the area. Cooler however with highs mostly 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front moves through the terminals late this morning.
High pressure builds in thereafter.
It is generally VFR or MVFR, with some areas of IFR east of NYC.
Conditions will improve back to VFR late this morning into the
early afternoon. Some showers remain east of NYC though early to
mid afternoon.
W to SW winds around 10kt or less shift W to NW late this
morning and afternoon today before settling NW late this
afternoon. Gusts up to 20kt this afternoon into early evening.
Winds then diminish from the NW tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts and changes in ceiling category may vary by 1-
2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: VFR. Winds NW g15-20kt, mainly late morning into the
afternoon.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters through at least 8 AM
Tue, and until 5 PM Tue from Moriches to Montauk. Ocean seas
should remain elevated, in the range of 5-7 ft into tonight.
Some 5 ft seas linger E of Fire Island Inlet on Tue. There could
be some occasional 25-kt gusts into this evening for some of
the non-ocean waters as well.
Gusts to 25 kt are also possible on the ocean Thu morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic issues are expected.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Surf heights of 5-7 ft have caused scattered areas of beach
flooding and localized dune erosion around times of high tide
this morning in response to long period SE swells from
Hurricane Kirk.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...