999
FXUS61 KOKX 072344
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
744 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds in tonight into Tuesday. Another weak
cold front should move across Tuesday night into Wednesday,
followed by high pressure Thursday and Friday. Another cold
front will arrive on Saturday, quickly followed by another cold
front and low pressure system late Sunday. This low may linger
nearby into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The forecast remains on track. Only minor updates were made to
hourly temperatures, dewpoints, and sky cover through early
tonight to account for current observations.
The cold front and showers associated with it have pushes
offshore. With continued NW flow/CAA tonight, should see
decreasing clouds, and low temps ranging from 50-55 invof NYC to
the mid/upper 40s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak sfc high pressure should nose in from the west daytime Tue.
An upper trough moving across at the same should lead to sct Cu
development mainly from NYC north/west.
A weak front settling down from the NW Tue night looks mostly
moisture-starved. May see a shower or two late at night across
eastern Long Island/SE CT per GFS.
High temps on Tue per MOS blend will be 65-70. Lows Tue night
will rage from the lower 50s in./just outside NYC to the 40s
elsewhere. Can`t rule out some upper 30s in the interior
valleys and in the colder spots of the Long Island Pine
Barrens.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Wednesday there will be a low pressure system in Quebec tracking
toward the Canadian Maritimes associated with a trough. This
will bring a cold front through, which will lead to cooling
temperatures. The front will be dry with PW expected to be below
0.5". High pressure is then expected to build in behind the
front leading to continue dry and sunny weather. We`ll also be
located within the left entrance region of an upper-level jet
streak Wednesday through Friday which will promote subsidence.
High temperatures will be in mid 60s to near 70 on Wednesday,
cooling to the lower/mid 60s on Thursday, thanks to the cold
front. Low temperatures will primarily be between 40 and 50
Wednesday and Thursday nights, although some interior areas may
reach the upper 30s due to a continued northwesterly flow.
Breezy conditions may be possible following the cold front
Wednesday into Wednesday night from a pressure gradient as the
low departs east and high pressure builds in from the west.
Then, more breezy weather can be expected on Thursday night as a
NW LLJ jet of 25-35 kt develops over the area. Despite clear
skies, the winds may dampen the effect of radiational cooling
Wednesday and Thursday nights.
High pressure continues on Friday with ridging aloft. More
sunshine and dry weather will persist.
Another cold front is expected on Saturday, but under N and W
flow, it again will be too dry for any precipitation to occur.
Sunday into Monday is the next best chance for rain in the long-
term forecast. An amplifying trough aloft over the Great Lakes
will bring a strengthening surface low and associated frontal
system somewhere near us or north of us Sunday into Monday.
Model guidance still varies on timing, location and intensity of
this system, so not much can be said about it with any
confidence. For now, it looks like southerly surface flow and a
strong LLJ aloft will develop ahead of the low and frontal
system, advecting in higher dewpoints and moistening the column.
Plenty of positive vorticity advection along with cyclonic flow
and a decent source of lift along the front could bring us our
next best chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure builds in through Tuesday.
NW flow this evening and overnight, with sustained winds around
10 kt, but diminishing as the night progresses. Gusts of around
20 kt should end at the start of the TAF period, but could hang
on for an hour or two after 00Z tonight, especially around the
metro terminals. Winds become W to WSW by Tuesday afternoon
around 5 to around 10 kt and diminish Tuesday evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may linger an hour or two after 00Z tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: VFR. Winds NW G15-20kt, mainly late morning into the
afternoon.
Friday and Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for all the ocean waters through at least
8 AM Tue, and through Tue night E of Fire Island Inlet.
Ocean seas remain elevated from swell from Kirk, in the range
of 5-7 ft, but should start to diminish tonight. Some 5-ft
swells linger on the outer waters E of Fire Island Inlet Tue
into Tue evening.
Gusts near 25 kt are possible on the ocean waters Thu into Thu
evening. Winds weaken Thu night into Fri.
Gusts near 25 kt may return on Saturday. Seas 4-6 ft may also
build on the eastern ocean zones on Sat.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Surf heights of 5-7 ft caused scattered areas of beach flooding
and localized dune erosion around times of high tide Mon
morning. This may occur again Tue morning with surf heights
still as high as 5 ft.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/BR
NEAR TERM...BG/BR
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BG/BR
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...