111
FXUS61 KOKX 080803
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
403 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A series of cold fronts move across the local region through
midweek, followed by high pressure Thursday and Friday. A cold
front will arrive on Saturday, followed by another cold front
and low pressure system late Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high
pressure follows for Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Longwave pattern depicts Rossby wave over SE Canada into New
England.
At the surface, low pressure remains northeast of the region and
high pressure to the southwest of the region. A cold front
approaches late today.
HRRR shows potential for showers late this afternoon. The other
CAMs show this as well. The showers move across mainly the
northern half of the region.
However, large scale models do not show this rainfall across
the region. So, this will be just slight chance, low coverage
with insignificant rain amounts of less than a tenth of an inch.
After noting MAV guidance better forecasted yesterday`s high
temperatures, this relatively warmer guidance was used for the
high temperature forecast today.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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The Rossby wave over SE Canada into New England is expected to
slowly move eastward with eventually this Rossby wave getting
east of the region into Canadian Maritimes Thursday night.
Progressively colder air at 850mb works into the region this
week through Thursday, noting a decreasing trend in 850mb
temperatures each evening. Early Thursday night, 850mb
temperatures could reach near or slightly below zero degrees C
in some locations before warming occurs later that night.
At the surface, low pressure remains northeast of the region and
high pressure to the southwest of the region. There will be a series
of cold fronts that move across. One moves across late tonight
into early Wednesday followed by another one late Wednesday
night into early Thursday.
HRRR shows potential for showers this evening through Wednesday
morning but only scattered coverage at most. The other CAMs
show this as well. The showers move across mainly the northern
half of the region.
However, large scale models do not show this rainfall across the
region. So, this will remain just slight chance, low coverage
with insignificant rain amounts of less than a tenth of an inch.
While CAM solutions are not available Wednesday night into early
Thursday, just like tonight into early Wednesday, there is strong
positive vorticity moving across. Despite large scale models
indicating no rain, will put in a slight chance of showers for
late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Again though,
not expecting much rain, less than a tenth of an inch likely.
Most locations could very well end up being dry.
Otherwise, there will be an overall cooling trend with temperatures
through Thursday night. Radiational cooling will be offset at
times with extra clouds around but winds will become light each
night which would allow for more radiational cooling.
The one other feature in the forecast to assess will be frost
especially Thursday night into early Friday morning. This will be
more likely Thursday night into early Friday morning since forecast
lows for the interior look to be mostly in the mid 30s across
parts of the interior. Put in patchy coverage of frost for some
interior parts of the region.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure remains in control for Friday with sunny conditions
and seasonable high temperatures in the upper 60s. A cold front
passes through during Saturday, but with a lack of moisture enhanced
by a deep W to NW flow. This flow will also factor into above-normal
temperatures with downsloping and compressional heating. Thinking
NBM is too low for high temperatures given the setup and timing of
the frontal passage. Have therefore bumped up the deterministic NBM
by a few degrees. Highs near 80 for the typically warmest spots in
NE NJ as well as for a few areas in the city, and 70s elsewhere.
There are still some differences among the global models regarding
the track and timing of the next low pressure system to impact the
region. A closed 500mb low is progged to shift through the vicinity
of the northern Great Lakes, helping to develop a surface low that
approaches us from the west. Its center most likely passes over us
or to our north at some point in the Sunday to Sunday night
timeframe. Rainfall ahead of a leading warm front will be possible
before the low center and attendant cold front bring additional rain
chances. Kept close to NBM PoPs due to the uncertainty, which keeps
just about everywhere dry during the daytime on Sunday, then the
best chances of rain arrive during Sunday night into Monday morning.
A cyclonic flow remains in place aloft during the rest of Monday
along with potential jet streak lift, but moisture will probably be
too limited for showers. Highs 65-70 on Sunday, and even cooler for
Monday with highs mostly in the lower 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure builds in today and tonight.
VFR. NW winds around 10kt or less, backing W to WSW this
afternoon. Light westerly or variable winds tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday night: VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt.
Thursday: VFR. NW gusts 20-25kt in the morning.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. WNW gusts 20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA remains on the ocean and has been extended for the Sandy
Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY ocean section until 6PM this
evening with the rest of the ocean zones remaining with SCA
until 6AM Wednesday. After a brief lull in the ocean seas
Wednesday, conditions become more rough with increasing winds
and seas Wednesday night through Thursday night. SCA conditions
will become more probable for this time period, especially
across the ocean as well as some non-ocean waters as well.
Gusts around 25kt will be possible on the ocean waters late Friday
night into Saturday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Seas 4-6 ft may also build on the ocean waters east of Fire Island
Inlet on Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Surf heights of 5-7 ft caused scattered areas of beach flooding
and localized dune erosion around times of high tide Mon
morning. This may occur again this morning with surf heights
still as high as 5 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...