006
FXUS61 KOKX 081754
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
154 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts move across the local region through
Wednesday, followed by high pressure Thursday and Friday. A
cold front will arrive on Saturday, followed by another cold
front and low pressure system late Sunday into Sunday night.
Weak high pressure follows for Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Satellite continues to show primarily clear conditions across
the region, with some fair weather cumulus attempting to get
going this afternoon across interior sections. Have adjusted
cloud cover up slightly across interior sections for late this
afternoon into the start of the evening. Have also made a slight
adjustment down with temperatures overall this afternoon. These
minor adjustments are based on latest obs / trends.
Longwave pattern depicts Rossby wave over SE Canada into New
England.
At the surface, low pressure remains northeast of the region
and high pressure to the southwest of the region. A cold front
approaches late this afternoon.
Most CAMs have backed off on sprinkles / showers for the
evening. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out across the
interior, but overall it stays dry as lower levels are quite
dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The Rossby wave over SE Canada into New England is expected to
slowly move eastward with eventually this Rossby wave getting
east of the region into Canadian Maritimes Thursday night.
Progressively colder air at 850mb works into the region this
week through Thursday, noting a decreasing trend in 850mb
temperatures each evening. Early Thursday night, 850mb
temperatures could reach near or slightly below zero degrees C
in some locations before warming occurs later that night.
At the surface, low pressure remains northeast of the region and
high pressure to the southwest of the region. There will be a series
of cold fronts that move across. One moves across late tonight
into early Wednesday followed by another one late Wednesday
night into early Thursday.
HRRR shows potential for showers this evening through Wednesday
morning but only scattered coverage at most. The other CAMs
show this as well. The showers move across mainly the northern
half of the region.
However, large scale models do not show this rainfall across the
region. So, this will remain just slight chance, low coverage
with insignificant rain amounts of less than a tenth of an inch.
While CAM solutions are not available Wednesday night into early
Thursday, just like tonight into early Wednesday, there is strong
positive vorticity moving across. Despite large scale models
indicating no rain, will put in a slight chance of showers for
late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Again though,
not expecting much rain, less than a tenth of an inch likely.
Most locations could very well end up being dry.
Otherwise, there will be an overall cooling trend with temperatures
through Thursday night. Radiational cooling will be offset at
times with extra clouds around but winds will become light each
night which would allow for more radiational cooling.
The one other feature in the forecast to assess will be frost
especially Thursday night into early Friday morning. This will be
more likely Thursday night into early Friday morning since forecast
lows for the interior look to be mostly in the mid 30s across
parts of the interior. Put in patchy coverage of frost for some
interior parts of the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control for Friday with sunny conditions
and seasonable high temperatures in the upper 60s. A cold front
passes through during Saturday, but with a lack of moisture enhanced
by a deep W to NW flow. This flow will also factor into above-normal
temperatures with downsloping and compressional heating. Thinking
NBM is too low for high temperatures given the setup and timing of
the frontal passage. Have therefore bumped up the deterministic NBM
by a few degrees. Highs near 80 for the typically warmest spots in
NE NJ as well as for a few areas in the city, and 70s elsewhere.
There are still some differences among the global models regarding
the track and timing of the next low pressure system to impact the
region. A closed 500mb low is progged to shift through the vicinity
of the northern Great Lakes, helping to develop a surface low that
approaches us from the west. Its center most likely passes over us
or to our north at some point in the Sunday to Sunday night
timeframe. Rainfall ahead of a leading warm front will be possible
before the low center and attendant cold front bring additional rain
chances. Kept close to NBM PoPs due to the uncertainty, which keeps
just about everywhere dry during the daytime on Sunday, then the
best chances of rain arrive during Sunday night into Monday morning.
A cyclonic flow remains in place aloft during the rest of Monday
along with potential jet streak lift, but moisture will probably be
too limited for showers. Highs 65-70 on Sunday, and even cooler for
Monday with highs mostly in the lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak frontal boundary will pass through tonight.
VFR with BKN mid level cigs developing tonight as the front
approaches. A few showers may be possible this evening or
overnight at the inland and CT terminals.
Winds tricky to start. Direction may fluctuate between WSW and
NW at KJFK/KEWR this afternoon, otherwise NW flow 10 kt or
less expected, backing WSW under 10 kt this evening.
Winds should shift WNW after fropa tonight, then become W
around 10 kt by afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KEWR/KJFK wind direction varying between SW and NW this
afternoon. AMD possible before 20Z if one particular direction
prevails.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday afternoon: VFR.
Wednesday night and Thursday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. WNW winds G15-20kt.
Sunday: S winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. Chance of showers
with possible MVFR cond at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With long period southeast swell continuing across the ocean
waters have added rough conditions at the inlets for this
afternoon. Otherwise, no changes to the winds and seas.
SCA remains on the ocean and has been extended for the Sandy
Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY ocean section until 6PM this
evening with the rest of the ocean zones remaining with SCA
until 6AM Wednesday. After a brief lull in the ocean seas
Wednesday, conditions become more rough with increasing winds
and seas Wednesday night through Thursday night. SCA conditions
will become more probable for this time period, especially
across the ocean as well as some non-ocean waters as well when
taking into account 25 kt gusts.
Gusts around 25kt will be possible on the ocean waters late Friday
night into Saturday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Seas 4-6 ft may also build on the ocean waters east of Fire Island
Inlet on Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JE/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM