034
FXUS61 KOKX 090800
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
400 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be the dominant feature through Saturday, but a
cold front will pass through tonight as well as on Saturday. A warm
front moves across Sunday with an associated cold front to follow
for late Sunday night. High pressure gradually builds in thereafter
early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Weak high pressure will be in place today with a cyclonic flow
aloft. Shortwave lift interacting with moisture in the 850-700mb
layer may produce some sprinkles this morning. Dry otherwise with
seasonable high temperatures. A cold front then passes through
tonight, accompanied by moisture advection in the 850-700mb layer.
Sub-cloud layer remains relatively dry with the frontal passage, so
again looking at nothing more than a few sprinkles around - mainly
over the northern zones where moisture will be sufficient. Lows near
50 in the city with 40s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Deep-layered ridging occurs across the region through Thursday
night. Mostly clear conditions through the period with below-normal
temperatures. Somewhat breezy for a time during the day, then winds
becoming lighter through the night. Patchy frost anticipated mainly
well NW of the city late at night with light to potentially calm
winds and temperatures likely falling below deterministic NBM
values.
The flow aloft slowly flattens Friday, but high pressure will still
be in control. Sunny with highs returning back to normal at 65-70.
Not as cool for Friday night with a WSW wind helping keep
temperatures in the 50s for most areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Upper levels show region in between two stronger jet streaks to
north and south for Saturday. Eventually the jet streak west of the
region associated with a large cutoff upper level low moves
southeast towards the region Sunday and eventually within the local
area for early next week. In the mid levels quasi-zonal flow is
expected for the weekend, but with more SW flow Sunday night. A deep
mid level trough (oriented SW to NE) moves in for early next week.
At the surface, a cold front moves across NW to SE on Saturday, then
brief weak high pressure moves across Saturday night. Then, next low
pressure system approaches from the west. Associated warm front
moves across during Sunday, with an associated cold front and low
pressure wave traversing late Sunday night into early Monday. High
pressure builds in thereafter for the rest of early next week.
Overall, in terms of weather, the long term starts dry but will have
a chance of showers mainly within Sunday afternoon through Monday
timeframe. This will be associated with the low pressure wave and
accompanying cold front during this timeframe. Otherwise, mainly dry
conditions are expected to continue.
Regarding temperatures, an overall cooling trend is forecast in the
long term. Saturday looks to be the relatively warmest day with
forecast highs in the low to mid 70s. In contrast, the coolest day
looks to be Tuesday next week when forecast highs only reach the mid
50s to near 60.
For Monday night as well as Tuesday night, forecast lows are mainly
in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Some spots across the interior are
forecast to have even colder lows, more in the mid 30s especially
where winds will be relatively speaking, lighter. With mostly clear
sky conditions, some frost for some of the interior rural sections
will be possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front eventually moves southeast of the region early with
another cold front approaching late in the TAF period.
Outside of a possible occasional light rain shower, mainly dry
conditions are expected through the TAF period. VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period as well.
Winds will be light, near or less than 5 kts initially going into
early morning with variable to NW direction. Then winds become more
westerly and increase to near 5-10 kts for the daytime. Winds return
to more of a NW direction and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to
20-25 kt towards the end of the TAF period at night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for the afternoon hours for wind direction
with potential for some sea breeze influence.
Amendments possible for the afternoon hours for wind gusts.
Occasional 15-20 kt gusts are possible and if they become more
frequent, then amendments would be needed to include these
gusts.
Timing of wind gusts late in TAF period could be 1-3 hours off
from observed.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight and Thursday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. WNW winds G15-20kt.
Sunday: S winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. Chance of showers
with possible MVFR at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Conditions will be below advisory thresholds today. Winds then pick
up tonight with at least occasional gusts up to 25kt on the ocean
waters late tonight, lasting until around midday Thursday. Seas may
briefly touch 5 ft during this period, but likely prevail below
this. After collaboration with the surrounding offices and
considering that this marginal event would not start until midnight,
will let the day shift evaluate newer guidance to see if there`s
higher confidence in prevailing SCA conditions. East of Fire Island
Inlet, the SCA could potentially need to be stretched into a part of
Thursday night as guidance shows winds picking up a little after a
lull in the afternoon. Winds aloft are not expected to be as strong
as they will be tonight into Thursday morning, so a somewhat lower
chance of 25kt gusts during Thursday night. Sub-SCA conds for Friday
with westerly sustained winds 10-15kt.
Outside of some occasional ocean seas near 5 ft Saturday, the ocean
seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Conditions trend
more rough for the ocean Sunday night with winds and seas forecast
rise back to SCA levels. For non-ocean waters, conditions remain
mostly below SCA.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM