723
FXUS61 KOKX 091438
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1038 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A reinforcing cold front will pass through tonight, otherwise
high pressure will gradually build in from the west through the
end of the week. Another dry cold frontal passage follows on
Saturday before a stronger frontal system impacts the area
later Sunday into Monday. High pressure gradually builds in
thereafter early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated near term forecast as low-level inversion quickly mixed
out with temperatures rises quickly over the last couple of
hours. That being, said forecast still looks on track for highs
in the mid to upper 60s. Cloud cover has also been adjusted
some with mid level deck working across area.
Otherwise, with a deep westerly flow today, a weak lee trough
will be set up across the area today. Shortwave lift interacting
with moisture in the 850-700mb layer may produce some sprinkles
and clouds this morning. Dry otherwise with seasonable high
temperatures. A cold front then passes through tonight,
accompanied by moisture advection in the 850-700mb layer. Sub-
cloud layer remains relatively dry with the frontal passage, so
again looking at nothing more than a few sprinkles around -
mainly over the northern zones where moisture will be
sufficient. Lows near 50 in the city with 40s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Deep-layered ridging occurs across the region through Thursday
night. Mostly clear conditions through the period with below-normal
temperatures. Somewhat breezy for a time during the day, then winds
becoming lighter through the night. Patchy frost anticipated mainly
well NW of the city late at night with light to potentially calm
winds and temperatures likely falling below deterministic NBM
values.
The flow aloft slowly flattens Friday, but high pressure will still
be in control. Sunny with highs returning back to normal at 65-70.
Not as cool for Friday night with a WSW wind helping keep
temperatures in the 50s for most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper levels show region in between two stronger jet streaks to
north and south for Saturday. Eventually the jet streak west of the
region associated with a large cutoff upper level low moves
southeast towards the region Sunday and eventually within the local
area for early next week. In the mid levels quasi-zonal flow is
expected for the weekend, but with more SW flow Sunday night. A deep
mid level trough (oriented SW to NE) moves in for early next week.
At the surface, a cold front moves across NW to SE on Saturday, then
brief weak high pressure moves across Saturday night. Then, next low
pressure system approaches from the west. Associated warm front
moves across during Sunday, with an associated cold front and low
pressure wave traversing late Sunday night into early Monday. High
pressure builds in thereafter for the rest of early next week.
Overall, in terms of weather, the long term starts dry but will have
a chance of showers mainly within Sunday afternoon through Monday
timeframe. This will be associated with the low pressure wave and
accompanying cold front during this timeframe. Otherwise, mainly dry
conditions are expected to continue.
Regarding temperatures, an overall cooling trend is forecast in the
long term. Saturday looks to be the relatively warmest day with
forecast highs in the low to mid 70s. In contrast, the coolest day
looks to be Tuesday next week when forecast highs only reach the mid
50s to near 60.
For Monday night as well as Tuesday night, forecast lows are mainly
in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Some spots across the interior are
forecast to have even colder lows, more in the mid 30s especially
where winds will be relatively speaking, lighter. With mostly clear
sky conditions, some frost for some of the interior rural sections
will be possible.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches and pushes through tonight.
VFR through the TAF period. Outside of a possible light rain shower
or some sprinkles, mainly dry conditions are expected through the
TAF period.
Winds will become more westerly and increase to near 10 kts into
this afternoon with gusts of 15-20 kt expected. Winds return to more
of a NW direction and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt
tonight into early Thursday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible this afternoon for wind direction varying up to
30 degrees at times, along with potential for some sea breeze
influence briefly. Also amendments possible for timing of wind gusts.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Thursday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt during the day.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20kt during the day.
Sunday: Southerly winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. Chance of showers
with possible MVFR, mainly at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Conditions will be below advisory thresholds today. NW winds
then pick up tonight with at least occasional gusts up to 25kt
on the ocean waters late tonight, lasting until around midday
Thursday. Seas may briefly touch 5 ft during this period, but
likely prevail below this. After collaboration with the
surrounding offices and considering that this marginal event
would not start until midnight, will let the day shift evaluate
newer guidance to see if there`s higher confidence in prevailing
SCA conditions. East of Fire Island Inlet, the SCA could
potentially need to be stretched into a part of Thursday night
as guidance shows winds picking up a little after a lull in the
afternoon. Winds aloft are not expected to be as strong as they
will be tonight into Thursday morning, so a somewhat lower
chance of 25kt gusts during Thursday night. Sub-SCA conds for
Friday with westerly sustained winds 10-15kt.
Outside of some occasional ocean seas near 5 ft Saturday, the ocean
seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Conditions trend
more rough for the ocean Sunday night with winds and seas forecast
rise back to SCA levels. For non-ocean waters, conditions remain
mostly below SCA.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE/JM
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM