691
FXUS61 KOKX 092004
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
404 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Following a cold frontal passage this evening, high pressure
will build in from the west through the end of the week. A dry
cold front moves through the region late Friday night into
Saturday. Another frontal system impacts the region Sunday into
Monday night with a strong cold front moving through late day
Monday. High pressure builds in Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A strong upper low over eastern Canada and into the Northeast
will send another shortwave trough across the area this evening
along with dry cold frontal passage. Also, a few sprinkles can`t
be ruled out this evening for the interior and even parts of
eastern LI an SE CT. Behind the cold front, there will be a
period of gusty NW winds up to around 25 mph. Highest gusts
will be near the coast.

While skies will be mainly clear, NW winds will keep the airmass
mixed enough to limit the radiational cooling. Lows will mainly
be in the 40s, but around 50 for the NYC metro.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The upper low/trough across eastern Canada and the Northeast
slowly works east and out into the western Atlantic. Heights
will be on the rise with surface high pressure building in from
the west. The center of the high will pass well south across the
central Appalachians on Friday as a fast moving shortwave trough
works east across the Great Lakes. The latter of which will send
a cold front toward the region.

Thursday will feature the coolest day of the week with highs in
the upper 50s inland and in the lower 60s along the coast. This
is about 5 to 8 degrees below normal. NW gusts up to 20 mph can
be expected during the day. Winds will gradually subside Thursday
night and become westerly on Friday. Lows Thursday night will
range from the upper 30s inland to the 40s along the coast. A
frost advisory is possible for Thursday night into early Friday
morning, but confidence is low at this time due to the amount of
dry air in place. Right now, plan to run with patchy frost
across the area. For Friday, temperatures rebound closer to
normal in the mid 60s to around 70. Warmest across the NYC
metro.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A couple of northern stream systems will move across the region
Friday night into Saturday and another Sunday night into Monday. The
first system will be an open weak upper shortwave with a surface
cold front moving through the area with little moisture. And will
keep the area dry with its passage. The next system will be an
amplifying trough evolving into a closed low over southern Canada
into the northern Great Lakes, and amplifying into the upper midwest.
This system continues to deepen along the eastern coast into the
middle of next week. At the surface, the cold front that moves
through Saturday will stall and move back north as a warm front
Sunday night into Monday. Then a cold front moves through late day
Monday, possibly earlier, as there are timing differences with the
global guidance. Both cold fronts will bring in colder air on a
gusty northwest flow, especially the front Monday. With the timing
differences have used the NBM probabilities. Cold high pressure
builds in behind the front Monday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals Friday night through
Sunday night, and then 5 to 10 degrees below normal Monday through
Wednesday. In the wake of the cold front Monday lowered dew points
from NBM values by a couple of degrees, and used a blend of the NBM
and the 25th percentile for highs and lows. Also, with gusty
winds Monday night into Wednesday with good cold advection
setting up increased gusts from NBM values. With the cold air
moving in areas of frost will be possible across the lower
Hudson Valley Monday night and Tuesday night, and included in
the weather.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front pushes through tonight with high pressure building
Thursday.

VFR through the TAF period. Outside of a possible brief light rain
shower or a few sprinkles this evening across northern terminals,
dry conditions are expected through the TAF period.

WNW winds prevail late this afternoon with gusts of 15-20 kt for the
evening push. Winds return to more of a true NW direction tonight,
and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt late this
evening. Some terminals may momentarily lose gusts briefly late
tonight before having gusts resume into the day Thursday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible late this evening and overnight for the
initiation and cessation of gusts once again.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt.

Friday: VFR, W winds 7-10 kt.

Saturday: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20kt during the day.

Sunday: VFR for much of the day, SE / S winds G15-20kt in the
afternoon. Chance of showers with possible MVFR late and mainly at
night.

Monday: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR possible early in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Following a dry cold frontal passage this evening, winds will
become NW with a period of gusts around 25 kt and seas of 3 to 5
ft on the ocean. A SCA has been issued for all waters for tonight.
It is possible that occasional 25kt gusts and 5 ft seas linger
into Thursday. High pressure builds in from the west with gradually
diminishing winds into Friday.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage late Friday night into
Saturday morning ocean seas and wind gusts will build to marginal
SCA levels in a strong and gusty west to northwest flow. Even
gusts across the far eastern Long Island Sound may be near 25 kt
for a few hours Saturday morning. Then by late day Saturday
winds and seas diminish as high pressure builds into the waters.
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels through Sunday.
Then southerly winds ahead of the next cold front will increase
late Sunday into Sunday night and ocean seas are likely to build
to 5 feet Sunday night, with gusts marginal near 25kt. Small
craft conditions continue on the ocean waters into Monday night
with a cold frontal passage late Monday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW