729
FXUS61 KOKX 100814
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
414 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be in control for the next few days with only a
dry cold front passing through on Saturday. A frontal system
then impacts the region Sunday into Monday with a strong cold
front moving through Sunday night into Monday morning. High
pressure then builds in through Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure builds in at the surface and aloft through tonight.
Dry and mostly clear through the period with a breezy NW flow
diminishing tonight. Still thinking that there will be patchy frost
across some of the northern zones, but not enough widespread
coverage across any of the zones to warrant an advisory. Although
dewpoint depressions would be just low enough to support frost,
formation will probably be limited to areas where the wind decouples
from the flow aloft - which will still be greater than 10kt near the
top of boundary layer. Best chance for something more than patchy
frost and potentially need an advisory would be over Orange County,
where decoupling would more likely occur due to less of a pressure
gradient. After collaboration with the surrounding offices, will
hold off on any advisory issuance for the time being.

NBM looked good for high temperatures today, but for lows, blended
in MAV/MET MOS for locations that are more prone to radiational
cooling. Highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will range
from the mid-upper 30s inland to the 40s along the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The flow aloft slowly flattens Friday into Saturday, sending a cold
front through the region during the day Saturday. Continued dry
weather in spite of the cold front as there will be a lack of
moisture enhanced by a deep W to NW flow. This flow will also factor
into above-normal temperatures with downsloping and compressional
heating. NBM looked good for highs on Friday, but still thinking NBM
is too cool for high temperatures on Saturday given the setup and
timing of the frontal passage. Have therefore bumped up the
deterministic NBM by a few degrees in most spots. Highs in the upper
70s for the typically warmest spots in NE NJ and some areas in the
city, with lower to middle 70s elsewhere. Clouds increase late
Saturday night ahead of the next system, but it appears that we
should remain rain-free through the night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A northern stream system will move across the region Sunday night
into Monday. It will be an amplifying trough evolving into a closed
low over southern Canada into the northern Great Lakes, and
amplifying into the upper midwest. This system continues to deepen
along the eastern coast into the middle of next week. At the
surface, a frontal boundary south of the area moves back north as a
warm front on Sunday. The cold front moves through sometime Sunday
night into Monday morning, though there is still some timing
differences between models. This cold front will bring in colder air
on a gusty northwest flow. With the timing differences have used the
NBM probabilities. Cold high pressure builds in behind the front
Monday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal Monday through
Wednesday. With the cold air moving in patchy frost is possible
across the lower Hudson Valley Monday night and Tuesday night.
However, NBM shows greater than a 50% chance of winds greater than 5
mph Monday night into Tuesday, which might be strong enough to
prevent the formation of frost in most places, so there is still a
great deal of uncertainty this far out with winds and
temperatures.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds in through Thursday night.

VFR through the TAF period.

NW winds tonight to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt through
daybreak today. Some terminals may see a lull in the gusts and
sustained winds may diminish a bit through sunrise. NW winds 10 to
15 kt this morning gusts 20-25 kt through late this afternoon. Gusts
may be a few kt weaker than is forecast. Gusts diminish this evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible if gusts are not as strong as forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night: VFR. Gusts likely end Thursday evening or early
Thursday night.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20kt during the day.

Sunday: VFR for much of the day, SE / S winds G15-20kt in the
afternoon. Chance of showers with possible MVFR late and mainly at
night.

Monday: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR possible early in showers. W to NW
winds 10 to 15 kt, with gusts 15 to 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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NW flow diminishes a little this afternoon then picks up slightly,
mainly over the eastern waters, late in the day into the
evening. Have decided to extend the SCA on the ocean waters
through noon today. There could be occasional gusts to 25kt over
the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet later this afternoon
and evening, but the anticipated frequency of this is not
enough to extend the advisory into tonight. Sub-advisory
conditions are otherwise expected through Friday. There is then
a good chance of a period of advisory conditions is Friday night
into Saturday on the ocean with the approach and passage of a
cold front.

Winds and seas remain below advisory levels through Sunday. Then
southerly winds ahead of the next cold front will increase late
Sunday into Sunday night and ocean seas are likely to build to 5
feet Sunday night, with gusts marginal near 25 kt. Small craft
conditions continue on the ocean waters into Monday night with a
cold frontal passage late Monday. Waves fall below 5 ft on Tuesday
and wind gusts generally fall below 25 kt, but marginal SCA gusts
may still be possible, especially on the ocean waters.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP