okx-afd on 2024-10-10

159
FXUS61 KOKX 101950
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south of the region through Friday. A dry
cold front passes through on Saturday. A frontal system then
impacts the region Sunday into Monday with a strong cold front
moving through Monday. High pressure then builds in through
Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Mainly skc tngt as the low clouds across upstate NY and nrn New
England are modeled to stay out of the cwa. A few could bleed into
nrn CT zones as well as the Hudson Valley zones at times. Otherwise,
lightening winds but overall there is still expected to be some at
least light flow thru the ngt. This will attempt to limit the
cooling potential. The NBM was adjusted down to the colder MET and
MAV guidance, but even these numbers are 36-37 in the coldest
interior spots. As a result, only some patchy frost was included in
the fcst and no advy issued attm.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry wx thru the period. Subsidence and good mixing will allow for a
warmup of around 30 degrees in spots. Mostly sunny with perhaps so
cirrus filtering in late in the day. Winds back thru the day and
into the aftn, becoming wly and lasting thru Fri ngt. The winds will
strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front Fri ngt, primarily
along the immediate shore. Elsewhere winds will be less, but the
gradient is expected to produce at least some wind. This wind, along
with an increase in cirrus, is progged to keep temps significantly
milder than Thu ngt. Stuck with the NBM for lows in this flow
regime.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There are no significant changes to the long term forecast, with the
exception of a slightly delayed cold front passage Monday.
Otherwise, a couple of northern stream systems will move across the
region Saturday, and Sunday into Monday. The first will be a dry
cold front that moves through Saturday. The next system will be
associated with an amplifying trough evolving into a closed low over
southern Canada into the northern Great Lakes, and amplifying into
the upper Midwest and into the east coast into the middle of next
week. The cold front Saturday stalls south of the region and move
back north as a warm front on Sunday. The track of the surface low
is across the northern portion of the region, and with this more
northerly track warmer air will move into the region behind the warm
front Sunday. Then the cold front with this low tracks across the
region during Monday. The coldest airmass of the early fall season
will move into the region behind this cold front, and with a re
enforcing trough late Tuesday, the cold air will be across the
region Tuesday through Wednesday night. Then surface high pressure
builds to the south and a return flow sets up with temperatures
moderating for Thursday. Areas of frost will be possible Monday
night across the Lower Hudson Valley, with a more widespread frost
possible Tuesday night and Wednesday night across much of the
interior.

Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, with lows near, to a few degrees above normal. Then
temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds through Fri morning, and settles nearby late in
the day.

VFR through the TAF period.

NW wind gusts 15 to 20 kt late this afternoon will end this evening.
The winds remain NW overnight at primarily 5 to 10 kt, but closer to
5 kt for the non-city terminals. NW winds resume close to 10 kt for
most terminals by late Fri morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon: VFR. W winds, becoming SW late for some terminals.

Saturday: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20kt during the day.

Sunday: VFR for much of the day, SE / S winds G15-20kt in the
afternoon. Chance of showers with possible MVFR late and mainly at
night.

Monday: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR possible early in showers. W to NW
winds 10 to 15 kt, with gusts 15 to 20 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
NW winds tngt are expected to remain just blw sca lvls, with seas
generally 2-4 ft. Winds and seas blw sca lvls on Fri, then increase
to around criteria Fri ngt ahead of an approaching front, especially
on the ocean.

Small craft advisory conditions will likely be on-going Saturday
morning across the ocean waters, and the central and eastern Long
Island Sound waters with a gusty westerly flow, and ocean seas
around 5 feet. A dry cold front passage early Saturday will bring a
northwest flow across the waters and conditions improve during the
day, falling below advisory levels by late afternoon.
Sub advisory conditions will be short-lived as a wave of low
pressure approaches from the west Sunday, and an increasing
southerly flow sets up. Ocean seas may build back up to 5 feet by
late day Sunday, with gusts increasing Sunday evening to 25 kt.
Small craft conditions continue on the ocean waters until another cold
front passage Monday, with small craft conditions ending during
Monday night, possibly as late as Tuesday morning across the eastern
waters. Timing of the improving conditions will be dependent on the
timing of the cold frontal passage Monday.

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET