571
FXUS61 KOKX 102351
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
751 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south of the region through Friday. A dry
cold front passes through on Saturday. A frontal system then
impacts the region Sunday into Monday with a strong cold front
moving through Monday. High pressure then builds in through
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
No significant changes with this update.
Mainly skc tngt as the low clouds across upstate NY and nrn New
England are modeled to stay out of the cwa. A few could bleed
into nrn CT zones as well as the Hudson Valley zones at times.
Otherwise, lightening winds but overall there is still expected
to be some at least light flow thru the ngt. This will attempt
to limit the cooling potential. The NBM was adjusted down to the
colder MET and MAV guidance, but even these numbers are 36-37
in the coldest interior spots. As a result, only some patchy
frost was included in the fcst and no advy issued attm.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry wx thru the period. Subsidence and good mixing will allow
for a warmup of around 30 degrees in spots. Mostly sunny with
perhaps so cirrus filtering in late in the day. Winds back thru
the day and into the aftn, becoming wly and lasting thru Fri
ngt. The winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold
front Fri ngt, primarily along the immediate shore. Elsewhere
winds will be less, but the gradient is expected to produce at
least some wind. This wind, along with an increase in cirrus, is
progged to keep temps significantly milder than Thu ngt. Stuck
with the NBM for lows in this flow regime.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There are no significant changes to the long term forecast,
with the exception of a slightly delayed cold front passage
Monday. Otherwise, a couple of northern stream systems will move
across the region Saturday, and Sunday into Monday. The first
will be a dry cold front that moves through Saturday. The next
system will be associated with an amplifying trough evolving
into a closed low over southern Canada into the northern Great
Lakes, and amplifying into the upper Midwest and into the east
coast into the middle of next week. The cold front Saturday
stalls south of the region and move back north as a warm front
on Sunday. The track of the surface low is across the northern
portion of the region, and with this more northerly track warmer
air will move into the region behind the warm front Sunday.
Then the cold front with this low tracks across the region
during Monday. The coldest airmass of the early fall season will
move into the region behind this cold front, and with a re
enforcing trough late Tuesday, the cold air will be across the
region Tuesday through Wednesday night. Then surface high
pressure builds to the south and a return flow sets up with
temperatures moderating for Thursday. Areas of frost will be
possible Monday night across the Lower Hudson Valley, with a
more widespread frost possible Tuesday night and Wednesday night
across much of the interior.
Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, with lows near, to a few degrees above normal. Then
temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal Tuesday
through Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds through Friday morning, settling nearby
late in the day.
VFR through the TAF period.
Winds remain NW this evening and overnight, lowering from 10 to
15 kt to under 10 kt by 3Z, and closer to 5 kt for the non city
terminals. NW winds resume near 10 kt for most terminals by
late Friday morning, backing WNW into early afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night: VFR. W winds, becoming SW for some terminals.
Saturday: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20kt during the day.
Sunday: VFR for much of the day, SE / S winds G15-20kt in the
afternoon. Chance of showers with possible MVFR late and mainly at
night.
Monday: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR possible early in showers. W to NW
winds 10 to 15 kt, with gusts 15 to 20 kt.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
NW winds tngt are expected to remain just blw sca lvls, with
seas generally 2-4 ft. Winds and seas blw sca lvls on Fri, then
increase to around criteria Fri ngt ahead of an approaching
front, especially on the ocean.
Small craft advisory conditions will likely be on-going
Saturday morning across the ocean waters, and the central and
eastern Long Island Sound waters with a gusty westerly flow, and
ocean seas around 5 feet. A dry cold front passage early
Saturday will bring a northwest flow across the waters and
conditions improve during the day, falling below advisory levels
by late afternoon. Sub advisory conditions will be short-lived
as a wave of low pressure approaches from the west Sunday, and
an increasing southerly flow sets up. Ocean seas may build back
up to 5 feet by late day Sunday, with gusts increasing Sunday
evening to 25 kt. Small craft conditions continue on the ocean
waters until another cold front passage Monday, with small craft
conditions ending during Monday night, possibly as late as
Tuesday morning across the eastern waters. Timing of the
improving conditions will be dependent on the timing of the cold
frontal passage Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE/DR
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET