524
FXUS61 KOKX 121147
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
747 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will swing through this morning, stall to the south
tonight, then lift north as a warm front late Sunday into Sunday
night along with developing low pressure. The low will drag a
cold front through on Monday, with high pressure slowly building
in thereafter.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
Dry conditions continue today despite the passage of a cold
front this morning. Much of the dynamics associated with the
front will be limited well to north as its associated upper
shortwave trough moves through northern New England. The flow
aloft looks to become more zonal and progressive over southern
New England and the Northeast as a whole by this afternoon. With
a gusty NW flow, downsloping off the higher terrain will allow
temperatures to warm to above normal levels today, with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in for the first part of tonight. The cold
front begins to move north late tonight, with a weak area of low
pressure over the mid-West riding the frontal boundary and heading
east. At the same time, an upper level trough dives south from the
western Great Lakes region and aid in some intensification of this
low over the Northeast. Most of the deterministic models show the
low intensifying as it rounds the trough and heads into northern New
England. A period of light rain showers is therefore in the forecast
from Sunday into Sunday night. Some lingering showers are possible
for eastern areas Monday morning. Some CAMs try to bring in some
showers late tonight into NYC and points east, however looking at
forecast soundings, instability does not look impressive to warrant
any POPs. Any showers should be limited to the interior for tonight,
with the best chances for any precipitation actually occurring
Sunday night.
There is also a brief period window for the possibility of thunder
for the first half of Sunday night as instability aloft increases to
a couple hundred J/kg, so continue to carry a slight chance for
thunder from 2 am to 8 am Sunday night into Monday morning.
Generally, light rain is expected with anywhere from 0.10"-0.50"
in the forecast. The highest amounts are expected across the
Lower Hudson Valley and inland CT, while lower amounts are
expected across NYC, NE NJ, and Long Island (eastern areas of
Long Island may be on the higher side of the aforementioned
range as the low intensifies east of the area, it could bring
some heavier showers in before it departs).
There is a decent temperature gradient across the forecast area on
Sunday, with area north and west of NYC seeing highs in the 50s,
while the city and coastal areas see highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This is because the frontal boundary is expected to be within
the forecast area on Sunday. However, there is a large spread in
temperatures seen in the NBM for Sunday (as much as 9 degrees in
some cases) as there is uncertainty in where the frontal boundary
will be. If it ends up farther north than is currently forecast,
then temperatures will likely be warmer than what is currently in
the forecast. If it remains to the south, then cooler temperatures
can be expected.
The cold front moves through on Monday and high pressure builds in
behind it. Precipitation will end from west to east through the day,
with dry conditions expected everywhere by sunset. Highs on Monday
will be seasonable, ranging from the upper 50s inland, to the upper
60s along the coast. With the strengthening low pressure to the
north and the high building in, a strong pressure gradient will set
up over the area, and breezy conditions are expected, with gusts of
20 to 30 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Dry conditions expected, with the area remaining in between low
pressure over ern Canada and high pressure over the Plains states as
a closed low to our northeast is slow to move out of New England and
ern Canada. A NW flow will bring down cooler air, with low temps Tue
and Wed from the mid 30s to mid 40s, and highs only in the 50s. Kept
the fcst dry Tue night but cannot totally rule out a few wraparound
snow or rain showers making it to wrnmost Orange County.
Slow moderation in temps (more daytime than nighttime) should occur
late in the week as the air mass modifies. Some frost is possible at
night especially Wed night and Thu night, as winds decouple both
nights and as dewpoints start to rise Thu night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as a dry cold front approaches and passes through this
morning, and followed by building high pressure.
W-WSW flow either side of 10 kt should continue until fropa at
13Z-14Z, with winds shifting out of the NW 10-15G20-25kt,
diminishing late in the afternoon. LLWS possible before fropa,
with NW flow up to 40 kt at FL020.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Chance of showers with VFR for much of the time.
S winds 10-15G20kt in the afternoon at the metros and along the
coast.
Sunday night: Showers likely, possibly an evening tstm.
MVFR cond possible especially inland. S-SW winds 10-15G20kt in
the evening at the metros and along the coast.
Monday: Showers likely with MVFR cond in the morning,
especially at the Long Island/CT terminals, ending in the
afternoon. W winds becoming 15G20-25kt increasing to
15-20G25-30kt in the afternoon.
Monday night: VFR. W wind 15-20G25-30kt early, becoming NW
10-15G20kt by late evening.
Tuesday: VFR. W winds 15G20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA continues ocean today, mainly for seas 5-6 ft. Seas should
diminish from late morning onward as the flow becomes more NW,
with seas falling below 5 ft from W to E from mid morning into
early afternoon.
Conditions remain below SCA criteria on all waters through
Sunday morning. The approach of a frontal system to the south
and then a strengthening pressure gradient from Sunday afternoon
into Monday will mean a prolonged period of SCA on the ocean
waters during this time frame as ocean seas build to 4-8 ft and
gusts of 25-30 kt are possible. By Monday afternoon, all waters
should see gusts 25-30 kt. Did not issue SCA for this period
just yet.
SCA cond in NW flow should continue on all waters Mon night,
with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas 5-8 ft. Thereafter, SCA
cond still likely on the ocean Tue into Wed night, with seas
3-5 ft and gust up to 25 kt. Could also see a brief round of SCA
cond on the non ocean waters especially the Sound late day Tue
into Tue night, with gusts up to 25 kt.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP