086
FXUS61 KOKX 122340
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
740 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front south of the area becomes stationary tonight
before moving back north as a warm front late tonight into
Sunday with developing low pressure moving into western
Pennsylvania. The low drags a cold front through Monday morning
as the low tracks along the New England coast and into eastern
Canada. High pressure gradually builds in through the start of
next weekend. At the same time, a few surface troughs may swing
through the area early in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast remains on track with minor changes to
temperatures and dewpoints with this update. Dry, quiescent
conditions continue this evening into the overnight. A cold
front south of the region continues to move slowly south through
this evening and then becomes stationary before moving back
north as a warm front toward Sunday morning. Meanwhile weak high
pressure was across the area. The latest trends bring the wave
of low pressure along the warm front farther to the north late
tonight with the best isentropic forcing mainly north of the
region. As a result, have lowered probabilities and delayed
onset until toward 10Z Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The warm front will be north of the area by midday Sunday, and
any precipitation that may occur will be across the northern
portions of the region as the best forcing remains to the north.
At the same time an upper trough amplifies into the northeast,
developing into a closed low over southeastern Canada late
Sunday night into Monday. With the approach of the cold front
late Sunday and Sunday night and some forcing and instability
developing showers will become possible in the warm sector. Then
during Sunday evening into Sunday night, elevated CAPE
increases along with some instability and increased shear, a
slight chance of thunder remains, and went with areal wording
to indicate the lower chances of thunder. By Monday morning, as
the cold front begins to move into the northwestern portions of
the forecast area, the CAPE and instability will be east of the
area. The cold front moves through by early afternoon with
precipitation ending. This front will bring a much cooler
airmass into the region for the beginning of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in behind the departing cold front very
gradually through the start of next weekend. At the same time, a few
surface troughs may swing through the area early in the week. Aloft,
there will be an upper level low over the northeast US with a trough
axis still to our west Monday night. This looks to swing through
Tuesday night into Wednesday with heights increasing thereafter
through the start of next weekend.
This pattern will usher in the coldest airmass of the season, with
well below normal temperatures through Wednesday night and a gradual
warming trend after that. Dry weather is expected, although can not
completely rule out some wraparound light rain or snow showers
across far interior locations. Gusty northwest winds likely continue
through about Wednesday. While the nights will be cold Monday and
Tuesday night, not expecting frost with winds remaining elevated and
higher dewpoint depressions. However, patchy to areas of frost is
possible Wednesday night and Thursday night as winds lighten.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR thru the TAF period. High pressure builds in from NW into
tonight as a warm front approaches from the south. A cold front
then crosses the terminals late Sunday into early Monday.
NW winds diminish this evening. Light winds veering to NE
overnight, and then E/NE Sunday AM then S/SW with gusts 20-25
likely by mid afternoon. A few showers possible at KSWF during
the day, and then all terminals late aft/eve Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
S/SW gusts 25 to 30 kt possible for Sun aft/early eve push. -SHRA
possible for late aft/eve push.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: Showers possible overnight, particularly northern
terminals. Slight chance of a Tstm. S/SW winds becoming NW 10-
15G20kt overnight.
Monday: Showers possible in the AM. MVFR conds possible for KSWF and
eastern terminals in the AM. Otherwise VFR. W/NW winds 15-20G25-
30kt, becoming NW 10-15G20kt by late Mon eve.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W/NW winds 10-15G20-25kt.
Thursday: VFR. NW winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With weak high pressure over the waters tonight, and a cold
front becoming stationary south of the waters, winds and seas
remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters. The front
moves north late tonight and passes across the waters Sunday
morning as an associated wave of low pressure approaches from
the west. With an increasing southerly flow behind the warm
front and an increased pressure gradient as the low approaches
and tracks across the region Sunday night and northeast Monday,
wind gusts and ocean seas are expected to reach SCA levels by
midday Sunday. Also, the southerly wind gusts across the south
shore Long Island bays will be near 25 kt. Have issued an
advisory for the ocean and south shore bays beginning 16Z Sunday
and continuing into Sunday night, 06Z Monday, for the bays, and
through Monday for the ocean. With a strong and gusty northwest
flow developing Monday behind the cold front and low, small
craft gusts are likely across all the forecast waters.
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue on all waters the
first half of Monday night and then after that SCA conditions
only continue on the ocean waters. A gusty NW flow could
continue through about Wednesday, before conditions lower below
SCA. With high pressure in control thereafter, quiet conditions
are expected over all waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the start of next
weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DBR