174
FXUS61 KOKX 141440
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1040 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through today. High pressure then slowly
builds through mid week, and settles over the area Friday into
this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast mainly on track this morning. Low pressure and its
associated cold front will move through this morning, followed
by a secondary cold front/surface trough this afternoon.
A brief, light shower is possible this morning, but anticipate a
drying W-WSW flow to commence behind the initial front. Gusts
25-35 mph are possible late morning into the afternoon. Winds
will shift to the NW behind the secondary boundary and would
not be surprised to see peak gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range.
Highs will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s, but
temperatures will start to fall this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions through the rest of the short term as high
pressure remains west of the region, settling over the center
of the country by Wednesday afternoon, and shifting east
Wednesday night. Cut off low treks into northern New England and
southeastern Canada tonight remains nearly stationary through
Tuesday night, then slowly tracks northeast Wednesday through
Wednesday night. High amplitude positively tilted trough moves
in Tuesday night into Wednesday morning over the Eastern
seaboard with the trough axis moving offshore by Wednesday
night.
With the closed low over northern New England and southeastern
Canada, cold advection will continue through Wednesday, with
some of the coldest air of the fall season thus far. Lows
tonight range from the lower 30s in the interior to the lower to
middle 40s across the coastal region. Mixed low levels tonight
will keep temperatures from fully bottoming out and will
preclude frost formation.
Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be hard pressed to climb
above the 50s, especially on Wednesday. Winds remain a bit
elevated on Tuesday night, which still may limit frost
formation. Better chances for frost Wednesday night across
northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and inland
southern Connecticut as the center of the high begins to move in
and temperatures are expected to be at their lowest for the
week. Lower 30s (with some isolated areas dipping below freezing
well inland) are expected across the northern portions of the
Lower Hudson Valley. Middle 30s are expected across portions of
northeast New Jersey and inland Connecticut, while coastal area
dip to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There have been no major changes to the forecast mid week
through the end of the week.
Key Points:
* A warming trend begins Friday with temperatures returning to normal,
then potentially above normal next weekend.
* No precipitation is expected.
The trough axis will slowly push offshore by Thursday taking
with it any surface cyclogenesis. The trough pushes further out
over the Atlantic Friday into next weekend as a large ridge and
positive 500 mb height anomalies builds over the east. This will
allow the surface high over the central states mid week to
build overhead and remain in control Friday into next weekend.
Highs will begin moderating Thursday and return to normal
Friday in the 60s before approaching 70 degrees next weekend.
Lows Tuesday night, Wednesday night, and Thursday night look to
fall into the low to mid 30s inland and 40s for coastal/metro
areas. This will bring the potential for frost inland,
especially where winds weaken or become light Wednesday night
and Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A wave of low pressure was moving through the lower Hudson
Valley at 14Z, with associated cold front moving through the NYC
metro area. Conditions were improving to VFR as drier air moves
in behind the front. Improvements at KGON will be around
16Z/17Z, otherwise, IFR ceilings slowly improve to MVFR, then
VFR. Light winds become WSW and increase to around 15-20kt,
G20-30kt.
Secondary cold fropa occurs late in the afternoon with winds
shifting NW and increasing to 15-20kt with gusts 25-30kt, a
little higher at KJFK, then diminishing to 15-20G25kt later this
evening before settling in under 10 kt overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected. Gusty W/NW winds may peak at 35 to
39 kt later this morning into this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W-NW winds 10-15G20-25kt.
Thursday through Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gusts over 25 kt expected on all waters today behind a cold
front. Winds gradually subside tonight. In response, ocean
seas build to 5-8 ft, before gradually subsiding tonight into
early Tuesday morning. The SCA on the ocean was therefore
extended until 8 am Tuesday.
Sub-SCA conditions expected Tuesday through Wednesday night and
should remain below SCA levels Thursday into Friday with high
pressure building over the waters. Ocean seas are expected to
remain below 5 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Because there was such little rainfall with the passing frontal
system, and Keetch Byram indices are over 300 for much if not
all of the forecast area (indicating overall dry conditions),
and it will breezy today, there are some minor concerns for fire
weather mainly across Long Island where minimum RH values should
dip below 40 percent this afternoon. However, this may only be
for a short time frame as temperatures begin to drop this
afternoon on strong cold air advection.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns attm.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP/DS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BG/MET
MARINE...JP/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JP/DS