450
FXUS61 KOKX 141947
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
347 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A secondary cold front pushes offshore early this evening. A
large area of high pressure then builds in from the west
through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Initial cold front continues to work east across eastern Long
Island and southeast Connecticut. A secondary front will
quickly follow through the next few hours. This front will
shift winds from W-SW to NW and usher in the coldest air of Fall
2024 to date.
Some weak returns accompany the secondary front and not
anticipating anything more than a sprinkle. Dew points behind
the initial front are dropping into the 30s with a very dry
subcloud layer. A steepening pressure gradient will also lead to
winds gusts 25-35 mph and a few spots could see a gust around
40 mph. Winds should start slowly weakening overnight as the
gradient relaxes. Interior locations may begin to see winds
decouple and become light towards day break. Otherwise, there
will still be enough wind to prevent temperatures from
completely bottoming out.
NW flow and cold advection behind the secondary front will
lead to temperatures falling into the mid 30s across the
interior of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior SW Connecticut.
It is these locations where winds will be weakest and have the
highest chance of seeing frost development late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. Have issued a Frost Advisory for W
Passaic, Orange, Putnam, N Fairfield, and N New Haven counties.
Further east in interior CT, there may be some frost but winds
be remain a bit stronger and temperatures may not fall as much,
but some patchy frost is possible. Elsewhere, lows will fall
into the upper 30s and low 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Large upper low and associated negative height anomalies will
persist over the northeast through the middle of the week. The
axis of the upper trough begins to shift to the coast on
Wednesday and may slide just east by Wednesday evening. The
lower heights will prevent the surface high over the Plains from
building east too quickly. There will also be a surface low
over southeast Canada and the Maritimes Tuesday and Wednesday.
The region will lie between the low and high pressure allowing
for gusty NW winds to continue both days. Gusts should peak
around 20 to 25 mph Tuesday. The gradient may steepen as the
high begins to draw closer Wednesday leading to potential of
gusts around 30 mph.
Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail with temperatures 10
to 15 degrees below normal. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday
will range from the low 50s inland and middle to upper 50s
closer to the coast. Temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday
will once again fall into the middle 30s inland and upper 30s
and low 40s elsewhere. Frost potential looks limited inland as
winds likely stay elevated..-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Key Points:
* A warming trend begins Friday with temperatures returning to
normal, then above normal over the weekend into early next week.
* No precipitation is expected.
An anomalously strong upper trough Wednesday night into Thursday
morning will depart the eastern seaboard, only to be replaced by an
anomalously strong upper ridge building in from the west through
early next week. There are some differences with the timing of an
upper low breaking off from the departing upper trough in vicinity
of the Mid Atlantic states. In either case, the area still looks to
be far enough north and west to keep the forecast area dry.
Otherwise, a large area of high pressure centered near the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys at the onset builds east through the
period. Some northern branch jet energy moving over top the upper
ridge may send a weak cold front through the region Sunday night. It
will likely wash out with little change in airmass. Thus, looking a
dry forecast.
As for temperatures, Thursday will start off about 5 to 8 degrees
below normal, then rising to above normal by a similar margin at the
close of the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Low pressure tracking along the New England, and into the
Canadian Maritime this evening, brings a secondary cold front
across the terminals late this afternoon into early this
evening.
VFR. A gusty west wind continues, becoming NW with the passage
of a secondary cold front 22Z/23Z. Gusts may occasionally peak
at 35 kt this afternoon. Winds and gusts diminish through the
evening, with gusts ending late tonight. Northwest gusts
redevelop Tuesday morning, 20-25 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday: VFR. W-NW winds 10-15, gusts
around 20kt.
Thursday through Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Minor changes were made to the SCA on the waters with the
non-ocean now running through 06z tonight and the waters east
of Moriches Inlet running through 15z Tuesday.
SCA gusts are likely this evening into tonight behind a
secondary cold front passage. Ocean seas will also remain
elevated. Both winds and seas subside late tonight into early
Tuesday morning. Winds likely fall below SCA levels on the non-
ocean waters by 06z and then on the ocean by day break Tuesday.
Seas will also subside below 5 ft late tonight, but likely
remain around 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet into a portion of
Tuesday morning. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels
into Tuesday evening. Winds on the ocean should increase to SCA
levels late Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday.
Sub-SCA conditions expected through early next week with high
pressure building across the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005-006.
NY...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW