704
FXUS61 KOKX 151749
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
149 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the west will be slow to build into the are
through Thursday as low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes
lingers into Wednesday, then as offshore low pressure passes to
the south and east Wednesday into Thursday. The high will
eventually build on on Friday dominate into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Only minor changes needed to the forecast for current
conditions.
Mostly high clouds, and a few mid, were streaming into the
region from the west, and should start to thin out this
afternoon, with some sct Cu development. With the Maritimes low
slow to pull away, NW flow on its back side will pick up and
gust to 20-25 mph this afternoon, mainly across the NYC metro
area and Long Island.
High temps today should be at least a good 10 degrees cooler
than those of yesterday, with highs in the upper 50s along the
coast and in the metro area, possibly reaching 60 in some urban
spots, while rising now higher than the lower/mid 50s inland.
Temps tonight under mostly clear skies and diminishing winds
should bottom out in the lower 40s in/just outside NYC, and in
the 30s elsewhere. A frost advy will likely be needed for some
of the interior zones for late tonight where temps will fall to
the mid 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Heights aloft will be slow to rise and sfc high pressure slow to
build from the west during this time frame, as the Maritimes
low slowly pulls away, and the base of its departing upper
trough closes off over the Mid Atlantic region, inducing
offshore sfc cyclogenesis.
Mostly sunny skies expected on Wed, with some afternoon Cu and
a NW flow again gusting close to 20 mph, and high temps similar
to those of Tue. Frost may be more widespread Wed nigh
especially inland as winds diminish under mostly clear skies
and temps once again fall into the 30s and lower 40s. Some
inland spots may get down to freezing.
Indications are the area will see only an increase in high
clouds at most from the offshore low on Thu as the sfc low
passes well SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. Temps on Thu will be a
little milder, with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:
* A warming trend begins Friday with temperatures returning to
normal, then above normal over the weekend into early next
week.
* No precipitation is expected.
An anomalously strong upper ridge builds in from the west
through early next week. There are some differences with the
timing of an upper low breaking off from the departing upper
trough in vicinity of the Mid Atlantic states late this week. In
either case, the area still looks to be far enough north and
west to keep the forecast area dry.
Otherwise, a large area of high pressure centered near the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys at the onset builds east through
the period. Some northern branch jet energy moving over top the
upper ridge may send a weak cold front through the region Sunday
night. It will likely wash out with little change in airmass.
Thus, looking a dry forecast.
As for temperatures, Thursday will start off about 5 to 8
degrees below normal, then rising to above normal by a similar
margin at the close of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pres builds W of the region thru Wed.
VFR. NW winds thru the TAF period. Direction close to 300 true
today, then veering slightly to around 330 true aft 18Z Wed.
Gusts, sometimes only ocnl, into the early eve, then picking up
again aft around 14Z Wed.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected. Exact end timing of gusts
may need adjustment by an hour or so. Gusts may only be ocnl Wed
mrng thru 15Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Rest of Wed: VFR. NW winds decreasing aft 23Z.
Thu through Sun: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes at this time.
SCA remains in effect only for the ocean waters E of Moriches
Inlet, and has been extended into tonight, as NW flow gusts to
25 kt and seas remain at 4-6 ft into this morning. There may be
a brief lull this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt and seas 3-4
ft before gusts up to 25 and seas up to 5 ft return tonight.
Sub-SCA conditions expected thereafter on all waters through
early next week with high pressure building across.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Keetch Byram Drought Index values are near or above 300 for
most of the area. Dry conditions throughout, plus winds gusting
to 20-25 mph and RH falling to 30-35 percent across northeastern
New Jersey, NYC, and across Long Island, these conditions
could promote fire growth and spread this afternoon. Similar
conditions may take place on Wednesday.
Issued a Special Weather Statement for northeastern New Jersey
for this afternoon.
With similar elevated conditions across NYC and Long Island
will issue a Special Weather Statement for this afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will be increasing this week via the combo of
higher astronomical tides, and incoming swell from an offshore
low. Attm brief minor flooding looks possible with the high tide
cycles Thu morning and evening for the S Nassau back bays and
the western Sound. More widespread minor flooding may occur on
Fri there, also along the NY Harbor, and at a few spots along
the south shore of eastern Long Island.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/MET
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BG/MET/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...