190
FXUS61 KOKX 151953
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
353 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure to the west will be slow to build into the area
through Thursday as low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes
lingers into Wednesday night. Meanwhile, low pressure developing
off the Mid Atlantic coast passes to the south and east Wednesday
into Thursday. The high will eventually build in on Friday and
dominate into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Surface low pressure remains over the Canadian Maritimes tonight
with high pressure centered over the central United States.
Northwest winds will be diminishing through the evening and into
the overnight, with gusts ending this evening. With a dry
atmosphere column sky conditions will be nearly clear. With
winds remaining around 5 MPH overnight and temperatures in the
mid and upper 30s a widespread frost is not expected across the
interior, and have not issued an advisory. Patchy frost will be
possible.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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The low over the Canadian Maritimes moves slowly to the
northeast during Wednesday as the surface high builds to the
west, and with the upper trough across the northeast slowly
lifting north, with heights rising across the region. With a
cool airmass remaining in place Wednesday highs will be similar
to Tuesday`s. Winds remain from the northwest but will not be as
strong or gusty as Tuesday.

The surface high builds closer to the area Wednesday night, and
with winds becoming light, under clear skies, a more widespread
frost across the interior will be possible. Also, temperatures
across this region are expected to fall below freezing, and a
freeze watch has been issued from late Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A 500mb closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will move NE on
Thursday. This will strengthen a surface low, but it will still
track well SE of the 40N/70W benchmark at its closest approach
during Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall should remain well
offshore, so expecting dry weather during this period. The low will
however cause northerly winds to increase slightly as the pressure
gradient tightens while high pressure tries to build in from the
west at the same time. Highs still below normal on Thursday - only
around 60, and patchy frost is possible at night well NW of the
city. Moderating temperatures then follow for Friday with seasonable
highs in the mid 60s.

The stretch of dry weather continues through the weekend and into
early next week with a large area of high pressure dominating the
weather pattern. Temperatures will warm up too, with highs generally
around 70 on Saturday and 70-75 Sunday through Tuesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pres builds W of the region thru Wed.

VFR. NW winds thru the TAF period. Direction close to 300 true thru
tngt, then veering slightly to around 330 true aft 18Z Wed. Gusts
diminish aft 23-01Z, then pick up again aft around 14Z Wed.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected. Exact end timing of gusts this
eve may need adjustment by an hour or so. Gusts may only be ocnl Wed
mrng thru 15Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Rest of Wed: VFR. NW winds decreasing aft 23Z.

Thu through Sun: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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A small craft advisory remains in effect through tonight for
the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet, with gusts near 25 kt
and seas at times at 5 feet. Occasional gusts to 25 kt will be
possible on the ocean waters from Fire Island Inlet to Moriches
Inlet, and across the far eastern Long Island Sound, and eastern
Long Island bays tonight, however, with low confidence and
occasional gusts have not issued an advisory. Once gusts and
seas diminish late tonight conditions remain below advisory
across all the waters Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The next chance of SCA conditions will arrive Thursday night
into Friday. Northerly winds pick up Thursday night as the
pressure gradient between an offshore low and high pressure
trying to build in from the west increases. Thinking is that
gusts probably fall just below advisory thresholds, however
swell generated by the offshore low might build seas up to 5 ft
on the ocean by Friday morning and potentially last through
Friday night. Winds and seas then diminish for the weekend.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Keetch Byram Drought Index values are near or above 300 for
most of the area. Dry conditions throughout, plus winds gusting
to 20-25 mph and RH falling to 30-35 percent across northeastern
New Jersey, NYC, and across Long Island, these conditions
could promote fire growth and spread this afternoon. Low
relative humidity and dry weather will occur Wednesday
afternoon, however, wind gusts will not be as high as Tuesday
afternoon`s.

A Special Weather Statement for northeastern New Jersey, NYC,
and Long Island remains in effect until 600 PM EDT Wednesday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels will be increasing this week with the combination of
higher astronomical tides and incoming swell from an offshore low.
Although it does not appear to be likely, cannot completely rule out
brief minor flooding with the high tide cycles for Thursday morning
and evening for the S Nassau back bays and the western Sound. A
better chance of widespread minor flooding would be on Friday for
these areas, with some spots along the NY Harbor and the south shore
of eastern Long Island potentially having minor flooding as well. A
less widespread threat then continues on Saturday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/MET
FIRE WEATHER...MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC