006
FXUS61 KOKX 160537
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
137 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the west will be slow to build into the area
through Thursday as low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes
lingers into Wednesday night. Meanwhile, low pressure developing
off the Mid Atlantic coast will pass well to the south and east
Wednesday into Thursday. The high will eventually build in on
Friday and dominate into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast remains on track, with only minor changes to trend from
current obs.
Surface low pressure remains over the Canadian Maritimes
overnight with high pressure centered over the Central United
States. Northwest winds settle in at mainly 7 to 10 mph in most
places. With a dry column sky conditions will be primarily
clear. With winds being lighter overnight and temperatures in
the mid and upper 30s a widespread frost is not expected across
the interior, and have not issued an advisory. Patchy frost will
be possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The low over the Canadian Maritimes moves slowly to the
northeast during Wednesday as the surface high builds to the
west, and with the upper trough across the northeast slowly
lifting north, with heights rising across the region. With a
cool airmass remaining in place Wednesday highs will be similar
to Tuesday`s. Winds remain from the northwest but will not be as
strong or gusty as Tuesday.
The surface high builds closer to the area Wednesday night, and
with winds becoming light, under clear skies, a more
widespread frost across the interior will be possible. Also,
temperatures across this region are expected to fall below
freezing, and a freeze watch has been issued from late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A 500mb closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will move NE on
Thursday. This will strengthen a surface low, but it will
still track well SE of the 40N/70W benchmark at its closest
approach during Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall should
remain well offshore, so expecting dry weather during this
period. The low will however cause northerly winds to increase
slightly as the pressure gradient tightens while high pressure
tries to build in from the west at the same time. Highs still
below normal on Thursday - only around 60, and patchy frost is
possible at night well NW of the city. Moderating temperatures
then follow for Friday with seasonable highs in the mid 60s.
The stretch of dry weather continues through the weekend and
into early next week with a large area of high pressure
dominating the weather pattern. Temperatures will warm up too,
with highs generally around 70 on Saturday and 70-75 Sunday
through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure gradually builds from the west through mid week,
with a trough pushing through during the day Wednesday.
VFR through the TAF period. W to NW wind close to 10 kt through
early morning. NW winds and gusts pick up again after 14Z Wed
with G20 kt towards afternoon. The winds will then have more of
a northerly component towards Wednesday evening. Direction
generally 280-300 true tonight, then veering slightly to around
330 true after 18Z Wed.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may only be occasional before 15Z. Gusts may end earlier
than expected late in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: VFR.
Thursday through Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA has been cancelled as winds and seas remain just below
criteria overnight. Ocnl gusts up to 25 kt and ocnl 5-ft seas
may still be possible in the far ern waters.
The next chance of SCA conditions will arrive Thursday night
into Friday. N winds pick up Thursday night as the pressure
gradient increases between a developing offshore low and inland
high pressure trying to build from the west. Thinking is that
gusts probably fall just below advisory thresholds, however
swell generated by the offshore low might build ocean seas up
to 5 ft by Friday morning, potentially lasting through Friday
night. Winds and seas then diminish for the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Keetch Byram Drought Index values are near or above 300 for most
of the area. Dry conditions throughout, plus winds gusting to
20-25 mph and RH falling to 30-35 percent mainly in NYC and
adjacent spots in urban NE NJ and Nassau County, could promote
fire growth and spread Wed afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels will be increasing this week with the combination of
higher astronomical tides and incoming swell from an offshore low.
Although it does not appear to be likely, cannot completely rule out
brief minor flooding with the high tide cycles for Thursday morning
and evening for the S Nassau back bays and the western Sound.
A better chance of widespread minor flooding would be on Friday
for these areas, with some spots along the NY Harbor and the
south shore of eastern Long Island potentially having minor
flooding as well. A less widespread threat then continues
on Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
NYZ067-068.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
NJZ002.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/BG/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...